Knowledge that Transforms

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This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the effect of compensation shocks on insider trading. I find that CEOs who narrowly miss relative performance goals and hence suffer a loss in compensation subsequently earn higher abnormal profits from their insider trades than otherwise similar CEOs who narrowly beat the goals. I also find that CEOs who narrowly miss relative performance goals become less likely to provide earnings and sales guidance. These results suggest that managers can use insider trading to make up for the loss in compensation due to missing relative performance goals, which could reduce the incentive effect of performance-based pay.

Abstract This article investigates crash risk premiums in individual stocks using skewness swaps. These swaps involve buying a stock’s risk-neutral skewness and receiving the realized skewness as a payoff. The strategy’s returns, which measure the skewness risk premium, are found to be consistently large and positive. This suggests investors are concerned about potential crashes in individual stocks and require substantial compensation for bearing this risk. Notably, significant results are mainly observed after the 2007/2009 financial crisis, indicating changes in post-crisis option market dynamics. Cross-sectional determinants of skewness swap returns include measures of systematic crash risk and stock overvaluation.

Abstract We study the impact of opioid abuse on real estate prices. We document that opioid death rates and excess prescription rates are negatively associated with house prices. Exploiting the staggered passage of opioid-limiting legislation, we find that a decrease in opioid abuse results in higher county-level house prices. This effect is due to fewer mortgage delinquencies, lower vacancy rates, more home improvement loans, and increased population inflow. Our findings are consistent with improved real estate conditions and a rise in local demand. These results highlight the importance of public health policy in mitigating the economic costs of the opioid epidemic.

Abstract We are the first to study the interplay between corporate diversification and debt maturity, both theoretically and empirically. Our models predict that diversification mitigates the debt-overhang problem, making long-term debt more attractive in the presence of rollover costs. Using data on 30,135 firms from 1978 to 2022, we find that multi-division firms have debt maturities at least 1 year longer than stand-alone firms, especially when facing debt overhang. Consistent with our predictions, the excess value of Berger and Ofek (1995) and Mansi and Reeb (2002) increases with debt maturity, suggesting that traditional measures of the diversification discount could be misleading.

Abstract We document that firms prefer counties with higher ethnic diversity in locating their interstate investments, especially for those pursuing innovation, seeking to establish service centers, or managing a diverse workforce. We also find some evidence that interstate investment in high ethnic diversity locations results in increased patent applications, sales growth, positive media coverage, and overall operating performance. Taken together, we show that firms prefer to invest in ethnically diverse locations as they recognize the potential benefits of leveraging a diverse labor supply, such as enhancing problem-solving, innovation, and performance. We must recognize that difference is a reason for celebration and growth, rather than a reason for destruction. (Audre Lorde)

Abstract We study removals of “credit ceilings,” quantitative limits on bank credit supply imposed by many countries until the 1980s. Exploiting differences in loan types affected, we find that these removals predict increases in bank credit, residential investment, house prices, and bank stock prices, followed by reversals, recessions, and banking crises. These effects are separate from those of other financial deregulations. Overall, our results suggest that credit supply shocks do not simply amplify existing fragilities but can initiate economic boom-and-bust cycles on their own.

Abstract We examine how team allocation shapes mutual fund managers’ compensation as well as their future productivity and careers. Assignment to a high-quality team lowers immediate compensation but accelerates career development—sharpening investment skill, boosting media visibility, deepening industry and style specialization, and raising future revenue. Team quality also raises promotion odds and explains the steep, tenure-based earnings profile common in asset management. Team allocation therefore acts as a career-steering mechanism embedded in fund-family compensation contracts.

Abstract We show that a firm’s financial constraints trigger investment disruptions that propagate through the production network. Propagation effects account for about half of the total investment reduction due to constraints. Network rigidities such as high input specificity and the scarcity of alternative partners amplify these spillovers. Firms mitigate investment disruptions by supporting constrained partners through trade credit or equity stakes. To bolster identification, we employ a Network Regression Discontinuity Design that accounts for spillovers. Our estimates are robust to network measurement error, endogenous selection, and various constraint measures. The results demonstrate that interdependent investments amplify the consequences of capital-market frictions.

Abstract This article documents a trend of declining flexibility in share repurchase policies over the last 4 decades. We show that repurchases have become particularly sticky for firms with repurchase programs in place. We also exploit the additional inflexibility within existing repurchase programs to show that repurchase stickiness can have real effects for firms. Using the 2008 financial crisis as a shock to firms’ ability to raise capital, we find that firms with ongoing share repurchase programs ending after Dec. 2007 reduced investment, employment, and R&D spending by more than similar firms with programs ending before the onset of the crisis.