Knowledge that Transforms

We use a simple two-stage dividend growth model to connect profitability growth and firm scale to stock returns. In this framework, both the magnitude and the length of the first-stage growth play a key role in determining returns. Using current profitability growth to estimate magnitude and firm scale as inverse proxy for length, we predict that future returns should increase with current profitability growth but, crucially, the effect should diminish with firm scale. Across a range of empirical tests, we find strong evidence in support of our model determinants and predictions. Our findings are not explained by an array of associated, potentially confounding variables.

This study examines the relative impact of seven factors, including herding, sentiments, and institutional quality, on varying levels of weak form market efficiency across 50 stock markets. The analysis focuses on the profitability of technical analysis trading strategies to address issues with other (statistical) market efficiency measures related to information and transaction costs (Griffin et al., 2010). Proxies for herding, institutional quality, and equity market development consistently emerge as the most significant cross-country determinants of relative market efficiency. In contrast, proxies for fractionalization, chaos, and investor protection play comparatively weaker roles. We also find no clear link between market efficiency and sentiment proxies.

This paper examines the role of intellectual property (IP) law as a determinant for external debt financing of innovative firms. For identification, we exploit exogenous variation in patent right enforcement arising from the 2004 EU Enforcement Directive. This major policy reform strengthened IP rights and, thus, raised patent owners' asset position. We find that patenting firms significantly increase their use of debt and benefit from lower interest rates in response to the amendment, especially if they own valuable patent portfolios. These effects are most pronounced for relatively small and financially constrained firms, emphasizing the importance of the legal framework in fostering debt financing activities of innovation-oriented firms.

We investigate the impact of dividend policy on earnings quality and opportunistic earnings management for individual banks across 45 developed and developing countries between 1996 and 2019. Our estimates show that high dividend payments reduce earnings management, hence mitigate agency problems. This mitigation is especially prevalent among well-capitalised and non-listed banks. Greater investor protection and government regulation appear to strengthen the negative association between dividend policy and earnings management. Our results hold robustly across many different specifications.

This paper examines how cultural distance affects fund transfers in the internal capital market of multinational firms. The results show that a larger cultural distance significantly reduces internal fund transfers to foreign subsidiaries. These results are robust to alternative measures of cultural distance and different econometric specifications. External shocks do not affect the results. Further analysis shows that the negative cultural impact is driven mainly by the dimensions of power distance, individualism, and uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, the effect of cultural distance on internal fund transfers is independent of subsidiary productivity, and a larger cultural distance exacerbates the negative impact of corporate diversification on firm value. Overall, our findings highlight the important role that culture plays in multinationals’ global operations.

We show that firms collect almost 70% of their cash flows in the second half of the fiscal year, and that firms that collect more cash by year-end earn a 6.8% higher per annum risk premium and save more cash. We rationalize these facts in a quantitative investment-based asset pricing model. Immediate cash payments negatively affect profitability, but reduce equity financing costs by increasing information transparency. Financially constrained firms optimally collect more cash at year-end when firms’ performance attracts more attention and information transparency is more valuable. Such behavior further results in greater exposure to aggregate productivity and financial shocks.

Sustainable investing is characterized by considerations of both financial returns and ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) impacts. We investigate how information about these two aspects, individually and in combination, affects investors’ decision to invest sustainably and their satisfaction with the information they received. We also test whether different ESG preference elicitation modes affect these investment decisions and investors’ satisfaction. We conduct an incentivized online experiment with two samples, experienced retail investors and a representative sample of the Austrian population in terms of age and gender (N = 2,254 in total). We find that both financial return information and ESG impact information stimulate ESG investment. Providing both types of information does not have a greater effect than presenting either one alone. Finally, we find no effect on satisfaction and the ESG preference elicitation mode significantly affects neither investment decisions nor satisfaction.

We analyze the performance of marketplace lending using loan cash flow data from the largest platform, Lending Club. We find substantial risk-adjusted performance of about 35 basis points per month for the entire loan portfolio. Other loan portfolios grouped by risk category have similar risk-adjusted performance. We show that characteristics of the local bank sector for each loan, such as concentration of deposits and the presence of national banks, are related to the performance of loans. We conclude that marketplace lending has the potential to finance a growing share of the consumer credit market in the absence of a competitive response from the traditional incumbents.

Regulations introduce substantial costs and constrain firms’ cost structures. This paper introduces a firm-specific measure of regulatory costs and explores its role in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decisions; specifically, large (small) firms with high regulatory costs are likely to acquire (be acquired by) firms in the same industry. In contrast, regulatory costs do not have such an effect on cross-industry acquisitions. Herein, I introduce econometric techniques, including accounting for additional industry-specific variables, alternative regulatory cost measures, and difference-in-differences estimators, to address potential identification issues. Furthermore, regulatory costs drive acquisitions contributing to shareholders’ wealth; hence, regulatory cost burden is a crucial factor in M&A decisions and outcomes.

We find that firms with CFOs who have extensive social connections within the finance industry hold less precautionary cash. CFO connections matter more than CEO connections, reflecting the preeminence of CFOs among C-level executives in cash management and negotiating access to corporate finance. Firms reduce the proportion of assets held in cash by seven percentage points in the two years following CFO turnover and the appointment of a CFO with finance industry connections. The stock market valuation of incremental cash holdings of firms with well-connected CFOs is lower than for other firms, consistent with investor recognition of CFO social capital as an alternative means to address constraints on external capital.