Knowledge that Transforms

American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics by Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried. Published in volume 107, issue 5, pages 678-80 of American Economic Review, May 2017

Report: Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP) by Cecilia Rouse and Gary A. Hoover. Published in volume 107, issue 5, pages 777-91 of American Economic Review, May 2017

Maternal and neonatal mortality rates in the slums of Nairobi, Kenya are among the highest in the world. Mounting evidence suggests that delivering in a facility is not enough to ensure mortality reductions: women must deliver in high-quality facilities and arrive early enough for appropriate care if complications arise. We designed an RCT combining labeled cash transfers and pre-commitment incentives to encourage earlier and more effective delivery facility choice and to promote earlier facility arrival. We find that the intervention improves planning, increases delivery at the desired facility, and encourages more timely arrival at delivery facilities.

This paper introduces and analyzes a procedure called Testing-Based Forward Model Selection (TBFMS) in linear regression problems. This procedure inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical model before estimating a final regression. The criterion for deciding which covariate to include next and when to stop including covariates is derived from a profile of traditional statistical hypothesis tests. This paper proves probabilistic bounds for prediction error and the number of selected covariates, which depend on the quality of the tests. The bounds are then specialized to a case with heteroskedastic data with tests derived from Huber-Eicker-White standard errors. TBFMS performance is compared to Lasso and Post-Lasso in simulation studies. TBFMS is then analyzed as a component into larger post-model selection estimation problems for structural economic parameters. Finally, TBFMS is used to illustrate an empirical application to estimating determinants of economic growth.

Manmade climate change (CC) has catastrophic consequences. The United States has already experienced wholesale population realignment due to climate as households have relocated to the Sunbelt and West. The irony is that people are moving toward the heat and major storms associated with CC. As CC intensifies, with high rates of internal US factor mobility, firms and households will likely again relocate to areas with higher utility and profits, reducing CC costs. Yet current research typically focuses on CC costs in a given location without considering this realignment. We propose several avenues to overcome such shortcomings in US CC modeling.

How might policies that promote marriage and/or dissuade divorce help in the fight against HIV/AIDS? This question is addressed employing a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model, using Malawi as a case study. In the framework developed, individuals can choose between married and single life. A single person can select among abstinence and sex with or without a condom. The results suggest that marriage-friendly policies can help to abate HIV/AIDS. The policy predictions that obtain from general equilibrium analysis are compared with those that arise from simulated synthetic field experiments and epidemiological studies.