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Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(4), 1082-1089 open access
The endogenous two-break unit root test of Lumsdaine and Papell is derived assuming no structural breaks under the null. Thus, rejection of the null does not necessarily imply rejection of a unit root per se, but may imply rejection of a unit root without break. Similarly, the alternative does not necessarily imply trend stationarity with breaks, but may indicate a unit root with breaks. In this paper, we propose an endogenous two-break Lagrange multiplier unit root test that allows for breaks under both the null and alternative hypotheses. As a result, rejection of the null unambiguously implies trend stationarity.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(4), 1063-1070 open access
The natural rate of interest—the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation—plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation of the natural rate of interest, however, has received little attention. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate jointly time-varying natural rates of interest and output and trend growth. We find a close link between the natural rate of interest and the trend growth rate, as predicted by theory. Estimates of the natural rate of interest, however, are very imprecise and subject to considerable real-time measurement error.

To what extent will the banking industry be globalized? A study of bank nationality and reach in 20 European nations

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(3), 383-415 open access
We model two dimensions of bank globalization – bank nationality (a bank from the firm’s host nation, its home nation, or a third nation) and bank reach (a global, regional, or local bank) using a two-stage nested multinomial logit model. Our data set includes over 2000 foreign affiliates of multinational corporations operating in 20 European nations and over 250 banks that serve them. We find that these firms frequently use host nation banks for cash management services, and that bank reach may be strongly influenced by this choice of bank nationality. Our results suggest limits to the degree of future bank globalization.

Institutional Investors and Executive Compensation

Journal of Finance 2003 58(6), 2351-2374 open access
Abstract We find that institutional ownership concentration is positively related to the pay‐for‐performance sensitivity of executive compensation and negatively related to the level of compensation, even after controlling for firm size, industry, investment opportunities, and performance. These results suggest that the institutions serve a monitoring role in mitigating the agency problem between shareholders and managers. Additionally, we find that clientele effects exist among institutions for firms with certain compensation structures, suggesting that institutions also influence compensation structures through their preferences.

Shareholder Taxes in Acquisition Premiums: The Effect of Capital Gains Taxation

Journal of Finance 2003 58(6), 2783-2801 open access
Abstract We exploit cross‐temporal differences in capital gains tax rates to test whether shareholder‐level capital gains taxes are associated with higher acquisition premiums for taxable acquisitions. We model acquisition premiums as a function of proxies for the capital gains taxes of target shareholders, taxability of the acquisition, and tax status of the price‐setting shareholder as represented by the level of target institutional ownership. Consistent with a lock‐in effect for acquisition premiums, results suggest a unique positive association between shareholder capital gains taxes for individual investors and acquisition premiums for taxable acquisitions, which is mitigated by target institutional ownership.