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Market Distortions When Agents Are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(4), 599-611 open access
Agents are often better informed than the clients who hire them and may exploit this informational advantage. Real estate agents have an incentive to convince clients to sell their houses too cheaply and too quickly. We test these predictions by comparing home sales in which real estate agents are hired to when an agent sells his own home. Consistent with the theory, we find homes owned by real estate agents sell for 3.7% more than other houses and stay on the market 9.5 days longer, controlling for observables. Greater information asymmetry leads to larger distortions.

Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?

American Economic Review 2008 98(1), 394-425 open access
There is considerable evidence that producer-level churning contributes substantially to aggregate (industry) productivity growth, as more productive businesses displace less productive ones. However, this research has been limited by the fact that producer-level prices are typically unobserved; thus within-industry price differences are embodied in productivity measures. If prices reflect idiosyncratic demand or market power shifts, high "productivity" businesses may not be particularly efficient, and the literature's findings might be better interpreted as evidence of entering businesses displacing less profitable, but not necessarily less productive, exiting businesses. In this paper, we investigate the nature of selection and productivity growth using data from industries where we observe producer-level quantities and prices separately. We show there are important differences between revenue and physical productivity. A key dissimilarity is that physical productivity is inversely correlated with plant-level prices while revenue productivity is positively correlated with prices. This implies that previous work linking (revenue-based) productivity to survival has confounded the separate and opposing effects of technical efficiency and demand on survival, understating the true impacts of both. We further show that young producers charge lower prices than incumbents, and as such the literature understates the productivity advantage of new producers and the contribution of entry to aggregate productivity growth.

The Curious Surge of Productivity in U.S. Restaurants

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026 open access
After remaining flat for decades, labor productivity at U.S. restaurants surged 15% during the COVID pandemic. The surge has persisted. We explore this using mobile phone data tracking visits and spending at 100,000 limited-service restaurants. It cannot be explained by scale economies, market power, or mechanical consequences of COVID demand fluctuations. However, restaurants’ productivity growth is strongly correlated with the share of their customers visiting for 10 minutes or less, which rose considerably during COVID and persisted. This restaurant-level relationship between labor productivity and customer dwell time is large enough to explain most of the aggregate productivity increase.

Vertical Integration and Input Flows

American Economic Review 2014 104(4), 1120-1148 open access
We use broad-based yet detailed data from the economy's goods-producing sectors to investigate firms' ownership of production chains. It does not appear that vertical ownership is primarily used to facilitate transfers of goods along the production chain, as is often presumed: roughly one-half of upstream establishments report no shipments to downstream establishments within the same firm. We propose an alternative explanation for vertical ownership, namely that it promotes efficient intrafirm transfers of intangible inputs. We show evidence consistent with this hypothesis, including the fact that, after a change of ownership, an acquired establishment begins to resemble the acquiring firm along multiple dimensions. (JEL G32, G34, L14, L22, L60, M11)

How Wide Is the Firm Border?*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2019 134(4), 1845-1882 open access
We examine the within- and across-firm shipment decisions of tens of thousands of goods-producing and goods-distributing establishments. This allows us to quantify the normally unobservable forces that determine firm boundaries, that is, which transactions are mediated by ownership control, as opposed to contracts or markets. We find firm boundaries to be an economically significant barrier to trade: having an additional vertically integrated establishment in a given destination ZIP code has the same effect on shipment volumes as a 40% reduction in distance. These effects are larger for high value-to-weight products, faraway destinations, differentiated products, and IT-intensive industries.

Health Care Exceptionalism? Performance and Allocation in the US Health Care Sector

American Economic Review 2016 106(8), 2110-2144 open access
The conventional wisdom for the healthcare sector is that idiosyncratic features leave little scope for market forces to allocate consumers to higher performance producers. However, we find robust evidence - across several different conditions and performance measures - that higher quality hospitals have higher market shares and grow more over time. The relationship between performance and allocation is stronger among patients who have greater scope for hospital choice, suggesting that patient demand plays an important role in allocation. Our findings suggest that healthcare may have more in common with "traditional" sectors subject to market forces than often assumed.

Productivity Dispersion in Medicine and Manufacturing

American Economic Review 2016 106(5), 99-103 open access
The conventional wisdom in health economics is that large differences in average productivity across US hospitals are the result of idiosyncratic features of the healthcare sector which dull the role of market forces. Strikingly, however, we find that productivity dispersion in heart attack treatment across hospitals is, if anything, smaller than in narrowly defined manufacturing industries such as ready-mixed concrete. While this fact admits multiple interpretations, it suggests that healthcare may have more in common with “traditional” sectors than is often assumed, and relatedly, that insights from research on productivity and allocation in other sectors may enrich analysis of healthcare.

Is an Automaker's Road to Bankruptcy Paved with Customers' Beliefs?

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 93-97 open access
We explore the role the feedback loop between firms' financial health and consumers' demand for their products plays in the auto market. We construct a simple model of an automaker making pricing and debt service (continuation) decisions while recognizing that consumers are sensitive to whether it stays in business. We show that multiple equilibria can exist in such a model, and calibrate it to match stylized facts surrounding GM's recent bankruptcy. The results suggest that while the impact of financial distress on demand substantially reduced GM's profit, bank-run-like multiple equilibria do not appear likely in this market.

Acquisitions, Productivity, and Profitability: Evidence from the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry

American Economic Review 2015 105(7), 2086-2119 open access
We explore how changes in ownership affect the productivity and profitability of producers. Using detailed data from the Japanese cotton spinning industry at the turn of the last century, we find that acquired firms' production facilities were not on average less physically productive than the plants of the acquiring firms before acquisition. They were much less profitable, however, due to higher inventory levels and lower capacity utilization—differences that reflected problems in managing the uncertainties of demand. After acquisitions, less profitable acquired plants saw drops in inventories and gains in capacity utilization that raised both their productivity and profitability levels. (JEL D24, G32, G34, L11, L25, L66, N65)