VIX futures prices rose slowly in late February and early March 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. Futures price premiums, defined as futures prices minus real-time statistical forecasts of future VIX values, turned sharply negative and remained negative until mid-April. Trading strategies based on estimated premiums profited from the subsequent increase in market volatility and equity market crash. The underreaction of futures prices to growing pandemic risks poses a puzzle for standard asset pricing models.

Non-controlling large shareholders play an important role in corporate governance in emerging markets where controlling shareholder expropriation is a major concern. We argue that non-controlling large shareholders are faced with two non-conflicting incentives: to take advantage of their information advantage and obtain positive abnormal returns when they trade company shares, and to serve as effective monitors and minimize controlling shareholders' appropriation of company wealth. Using a sample of large shareholders' selling events upon the expiration of the lockup period following the split-share structure reform in China, we find that non-controlling large shareholders successfully time the market, as shown by their positive abnormal returns when selling their shares. Their returns are higher if they have a greater information advantage. Furthermore, the positive returns of the controlling large shareholder are negatively related to non-controlling large shareholders' ownership, suggesting that non-controlling large shareholders play a monitoring role and prevent controlling shareholders from looting the company. We also show that large shareholders affiliated with the controlling shareholders are not subject to as high a level of monitoring as those controlling shareholders are. Furthermore, both firm opaqueness and the severity of agency cost affect the quality of non-controlling large shareholders' monitoring.

Time-varying depreciation rates are estimated for research and development of the United States aggregate economy and innovation-intensive industries. Mean annual R&D depreciation rates are 31.5% for software, 41% for pharmaceuticals, 42% for semiconductors, and 30.4% for aggregate economy during 1978–2014. R&D depreciation rates vary across industries. R&D investment demand has separate elasticities in time-varying depreciation, interest rate and price growth, allowing for different rates of technology shifts across industries. Software R&D investment has the same magnitude of elasticities to depreciation, interest rate and price, supporting a user cost to apply. For pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, depreciation leads to more R&D investment that implies the effect of scale. For aggregate economy, depreciation reduces R&D investment more than interest rate, indicating obsolescence. Forecasting of R&D investment is improved at both industry and aggregate level. Forecastable time-varying depreciation, interest rate and price growth predict R&D investment based on the estimated demand function. The in-sample forecast comparison for 2015–2019 confirms the superiority to the alternative methods. Out-of-sample forecasts of R&D investment are carried out through 2025, and R&D capital stocks are constructed across industries and aggregate U.S. economy.

Following an exogenous regulation change in China, we examine the impact of company visit disclosures on the fairness of market information acquisition. Before July 2012, company visits to Chinese listed firms were vaguely disclosed in annual reports long after they were conducted. After that, they were disclosed in detail within two trading days of their completion. Market reactions around visits are much stronger and more predictive of firms' future earnings if visits occurred after July 2012 and, thus, were disclosed in a timelier and more detailed manner. The timely disclosure of visit details also improves the forecast accuracy of non-visiting analysts, reduces forecast dispersion among analysts, and weakens the relative information advantages of visiting analysts. Because of this, visits are more concentrated on firms with poorer information environments, larger sizes, and manufacturing firms after July 2012, i.e., firms offering visitors larger potential benefits. In summary, the timely disclosure of visit details improves the fairness of information acquisition and decreases information asymmetry while causing information chilling effects for firms that provide fewer potential benefits to visitors.

We examine how short sellers affect long‐run management forecasts using a natural experiment (Regulation SHO) that relaxes short‐selling constraints on a group of randomly selected firms (referred to as pilot firms). We find that compared to other firms, the pilot firms issue more long‐run good news forecasts but do not change the frequency of long‐run bad news forecasts. The increase in good news forecasts is greater when the pilot firms have higher‐quality forecasts, greater uncertainty about firm value, or higher manager equity incentives. Overall, these results and the results of additional analyses indicate that the reduction in short‐selling constraints and the increase in short‐selling threat induce managers to enhance disclosures through more long‐run good news forecasts to discourage short sellers.