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Worrying about the Stock Market: Evidence from Hospital Admissions

Journal of Finance 2016 71(3), 1227-1250 open access
Using individual patient records for every hospital in California from 1983 to 2011, we find a strong inverse link between daily stock returns and hospital admissions, particularly for psychological conditions such as anxiety, panic disorder, and major depression. The effect is nearly instantaneous (within the same day) for psychological conditions, suggesting that anticipation over future consumption directly influences instantaneous utility.

Swimming Upstream: Struggling Firms in Corrupt Cities

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(7), 3311-3343 open access
We find that a corrupt local environment amplifies the effects of financial distress. Following regional spikes in financial misconduct, credit becomes more difficult to obtain for local borrowers—even those not implicated themselves. This is particularly harmful for cash-constrained firms, which cut investment more sharply and lay off more workers during industry downturns. We also find that local clustering of financial misconduct is a risk factor for bankruptcy.

Global Relation between Financial Distress and Equity Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(1), 239-277 open access
Recent studies conflict sharply about the stock returns of financially distressed firms. Both the basic empirical pattern and interpretation have been challenged. This study addresses both critiques. Analyzing about 4.3 million firm-months observations in 38 countries from January 1992 to June 2013, we find a strong, negative link between credit risk and subsequent equity returns, concentrated among low-capitalization stocks in developed countries in North America and Europe. Comparisons between countries reveal: 1) no relation to creditor rights, inconsistent with theories based on shareholders expropriation, but 2) a strong, positive relation to individualism, a proxy for investor overconfidence. Additional analysis using within-country proxies for investor overconfidence further supports an overconfidence-based explanation.

Human Capital and the Supply of Religion

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2016 98(3), 415-427 open access
We study the role of labor inputs in religious attendance using data on Oklahoma Methodist congregations from 1961 to 2003. Pastors play a significant role in church growth: replacing a 25th percentile pastor with a 75th percentile one increases annual attendance growth by 3%. A pastor’s performance in his or her first church (largely the result of random assignment) predicts future performance, suggesting a causal effect of pastors on growth. The deployment of pastors by the church indicates efficient use of labor: low-performing pastors are more likely to be rotated or exit the sample, and high-performing pastors are moved to larger congregations.