Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and confidence intervals for the structural parameters that are valid even under the worst-case correlation structure. In the over-identified case, we show that the moment weighting scheme that minimizes the worst-case estimator variance amounts to a moment selection problem with a simple solution. Finally, we develop tests of over-identifying or parameter restrictions. We apply our methods empirically to a model of menu cost pricing for multi-product firms and to a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model.

Using global data on syndicated loans, we show that any negative effect of stronger creditor rights on loan spreads, as identified in the prior literature (Qian and Strahan, 2007; Bae and Goyal, 2009), disappears once we include a single country characteristic: country size. This finding is robust to several identification methods, both global samples and within-country changes in creditor rights, different panel spans, and hundreds of control variables. We identify that key origins of the effect of country size on loan pricing are ethnic fractionalization and within-country heterogeneity in economic preferences, which create country risk.

Pre-IPO firms may “test the waters” by meeting privately with investors in order to allow access to management and more time to make an investment decision. However, these meetings have the potential to undermine the SEC’s objectives of protecting investors and supporting market efficiency by allowing institutional investors, but not retail investors, private access to management. We find lower retail trading after IPOs of firms that held testing-the-waters meetings, consistent with the meetings reducing retail investor participation. Moreover, retail investors that still participate in the market in the presence of testing-the-waters meetings have inferior investment outcomes. Nonetheless, we find no evidence of lower overall market liquidity or slower price discovery following testing-the-waters meetings. In fact, we observe a reduction in stock return volatility. Overall our evidence suggests that, while testing-the-waters meetings may harm retail investors, there does not appear to be a negative impact on overall market function.

We examine the effects of local newspapers on firms’ information environments. With newspaper employment dropping precipitously in the last few decades, we posit that these changes will harm local firms’ information environments. Consistent with local news improving information environments, we find that volatility, spreads, and illiquidity increase as local newspaper intensity declines and that this is associated with firms’ importance in their local economy. We further find that for firms that are more important in their community, or have busy analysts, less local newspaper intensity is associated with significantly lower analyst accuracy and higher forecast dispersion. This is consistent with local newspapers improving information environments, even for sophisticated and likely remote information intermediaries. We also investigate how stakeholders respond to declines in local news and find that managers increase the amount of forward-looking disclosures while analysts increase coverage. These results provide insights into the methods by which stakeholders attempt to improve firms’ information environments when local news coverage fades.

We consider a procurement auction for the provision of a basic service to which an add-on must later be appended. Potential providers are symmetric, have private information on their cost for the basic service and the winning firm must also implement the add-on. To finance value-enhancing activities related to the add-on, this firm may need extra funding by outside financiers. Nonverifiable effort related to these activities creates a moral hazard problem which makes the firm’s payoff function for the second period concave in returns over the relevant range. Concavity has two effects. First, it makes it more attractive to backload payments to facilitate information revelation. Second, uncertainty on the cost of the add-on introduces a background risk which requires a risk premium. In this context, we characterize the optimal intertemporal structure of payments to the winning firm, equilibrium bidding behaviour and reserve prices for a first-price auction.

Research concludes that managers’ political orientation influences their decision-making and offers the political connections and risk tolerance hypotheses as explanations. We investigate partisan bias as an additional way political orientation may influence managers’ decisions. Partisan bias results in individuals whose partisan orientation aligns with that of the US president expressing more optimistic economic expectations. We examine whether partisan bias is present in managers’ annual earnings forecasts. We find that firms with CEOs whose partisanship aligns with that of the US president issue more optimistically biased annual earnings forecasts than firms with other CEOs. Higher-ability CEOs, however, are less susceptible to partisan bias. Additionally, we find that overestimating customer demand contributes to the forecast over-optimism of partisan-aligned CEOs and results in greater firm overinvestment. Furthermore, investors fail to discount the news in forecasts of partisan-aligned CEOs, and their firms’ post-forecast abnormal returns are lower.

We examine whether mutual fund managers overestimate carbon risk when they are exposed to local air pollution. We find that air pollution near fund managers induces them to underweight stocks of high-emission firms. The effects strengthen among environmentally conscious fund managers and among those likely to be surprised by air pollution—consistent with the idea that managers revise their beliefs about carbon risk following exposure to air pollution. A firm’s carbon-emissions disclosures and fund managers’ sophistication moderate these effects. Carbon-intensive stocks sold by fund managers who are exposed to local air pollution subsequently outperform stocks they buy, suggesting that such underweighting is costly to fund investors.

This paper investigates the impact of the first system-wide capital relief package adopted by euro area prudential authorities, to support bank lending to firms at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By leveraging confidential supervisory and credit register data, we uncover two main findings. First, capital relief measures support banks’ capacity to supply credit to firms. Second, the type of relief matters. Banks increase their credit supply in response to measures that reduce binding capital requirements and affect banks’ ability to distribute dividends. By contrast, discretionary relief measures that do not affect dividend policy are met with limited success. Moreover, requirement releases are more effective for banks with ex-ante lower capital headroom and for lending to smaller firms. These findings provide novel insights on the design of effective bank capital requirement releases in crisis times and, more generally, of policies to support bank credit in times of economic distress.

This study examines whether auditor KAM disclosures about M&A transactions predict future performance outcomes. We find that auditors make more M&A KAM disclosures when M&A transactions are larger, involve targets with greater information asymmetry, and are subject to greater overpayment risk. When auditors disclose M&A KAMs in the acquisition year, we find an increased risk of larger goodwill impairments and that the association between acquired goodwill and changes in companies’ subsequent operating performance are significantly lower compared to when auditors do not issue an M&A KAM. We also find that the likelihood of forced CEO turnover is incrementally higher when subsequent operating performance is poor and auditors issue an M&A KAM compared to when they do not. Collectively, our findings suggest that these auditor disclosures reflect uncertainty that predicts weak post-acquisition performance and forced CEO turnover, incremental to other indicators of failed acquisition strategies.

We examine whether foreign national directors (FNDs) on US corporate boards help their firms mitigate the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks originating from the directors' home countries. Using a comprehensive data set of US manufacturing firms' international supply chain relationships from 2003 to 2019, we find that EPU spikes in supplier countries lead to significant declines in aggregate US imports as well as in buyer firms' inventory purchases, sales, and market valuation. However, firms with FNDs from the affected countries are better able to mitigate these negative impacts. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that the beneficial role of FNDs is more pronounced in firms with limited operational slack, greater difficulty accessing information about supplier countries, and higher financial constraints. Robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, our findings underscore the importance of FNDs on corporate boards during times of increased global uncertainty, especially for firms heavily reliant on foreign suppliers, and inform the debate on board diversity and supply chain resilience amid economic policy‐driven uncertainties.