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The Cross-Section of Stock Returns Around the World in the Early Twentieth Century

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2025 15(1), 46-73 open access
We study nine equity markets between 1900 and 1925 to provide an out-of-sample test of some major asset pricing anomalies during a period in which anomalies had not been documented. We find strong evidence of momentum in almost every market. We find no evidence of long-term reversals, which, coupled with the limited presence of institutional investors, suggests that underreaction should be considered as a key aspect of behavioral theories of momentum. We also find evidence for the size effect, betting-against-beta, and the outperformance of low volatility stocks, whereas we find mixed evidence of short-term reversal.

Credit Provision and Stock Trading: Evidence from the South Sea Bubble

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(8), 3708-3738 open access
This article studies the relationship between credit provision and stock trading behavior. We collect every stock transaction of the three major British companies during the 1720 South Sea Bubble and link stock trading to margin loan positions with the Bank of England. We give insights in the selection of traders into the loan facility by comparing the trading behavior and realized returns of borrowers to other traders. We find that loan holders are more likely to buy following high returns and document strong underperformance of borrowers.

Household Inequality, Entrepreneurial Dynamism, and Corporate Financing

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(5), 2448-2507 open access
Economic theories posit conflicting hypotheses on how wealth inequality affects entrepre-neurial dynamism. We investigate the impact of wealth inequality on business dynamics by constructing local measures of household wealth inequality based on financial rents, home equity, and 1880 farmland. We then identify the effect of wealth inequality on entrepre-neurship by instrumenting it with land distribution under the 1862 Homestead Act. Wealth inequality decreases firm entry and exit, and the proportion of high-tech businesses across metropolitan statistical areas. Wealth inequality also lowers the supply of public goods, such as education. Growth in income per capita consequently lags.

Inflation and Individual Investors’ Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(12), 5012-5045 open access
We analyze how individual investors respond to inflation. We introduce a unique data set containing information on local inflation and security portfolios of more than 2,000 clients of a German bank between 1920 and 1924, covering the German hyperinflation. We find that individual investors buy fewer (sell more) stocks when facing higher local inflation. This effect is more pronounced for less sophisticated investors. Moreover, we document a positive relation between local inflation and forgone returns following stock sales. Our findings are consistent with individual investors suffering from money illusion. Alternative explanations, such as consumption needs, are unlikely to drive our results.

Credit and social unrest: Evidence from 1930s China

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 138(2), 295-315 open access
Do credit contractions trigger social unrest? To answer this question, we turn to a natural experiment from 1930s China, where the 1933 U.S. Silver Purchase program acts as a shock to bank lending. We assemble a hand-collected data set of loan contracts between banks and firms, labor unrest episodes, and underground Communist Party penetration. The Silver Purchase shock results in a severe credit contraction, and firms borrowing from banks with a larger exposure to it experience increased labor unrest and Communist Party penetration among their workers. These findings contribute to understanding the socio-political consequences of credit shocks.

The value of financial intermediation: Evidence from online debt crowdfunding

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 172, 104113 open access
Most online marketplaces are peer-to-peer. Credit ones, however, are not and they have resurrected many features of traditional financial intermediaries. To understand why, we use online credit as a laboratory to investigate the value of financial intermediation. We develop a structural model of online debt crowdfunding and estimate it on a novel database. We find that abandoning the peer-to-peer paradigm raises lender surplus, platform profits, and credit provision, but exposes investors to liquidity risk. A counterfactual where the platform resembles a bank by bearing liquidity risk can generate larger lender surplus and credit provision when liquidity is low and lenders are risk averse.