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Price and Size Discovery in Financial Markets: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Securities Market

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2019 9(2), 256-295 open access
We study the workup protocol, an important size discovery mechanism in the U.S. Treasury market. We find that workup order flow shocks explain 6%–8% of the variation of returns on benchmark notes and, across maturities, 10% of the variation of the yield curve level factor. Information related to proprietary client order flow is more likely to show up in workup trades, whereas information derived from public announcements tends to come through preworkup trades. Our findings highlight how the nature of information affects the trade-off between speed and execution price when informed traders choose between the lit and workup channels. Received May 3, 2017; Editorial decision August 1, 2018 by Editor Thierry Foucault. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. Internet Appendix tables are numbered with “IA” prefix.

How do Treasury dealers manage their positions?

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 158, 103885 open access
Using 31 years of data (1990–2020) on U.S. Treasury dealer positions, we find that Treasury issuance is the main driver of dealers’ weekly inventory changes. Such inventory fluctuations are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers are compensated for inventory risk by means of subsequent price appreciation of their holdings. Amid increased balance sheet costs attributable to post-crisis regulatory changes, dealers significantly reduce their position taking and layoff inventory faster. Moreover, the increased participation of non-dealers (investment funds) in the primary market contributes to diminishing compensation for inventory risk taken on at auctions.

Opioid Crisis Effects on Municipal Finance

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(4), 2019-2066 open access
We investigate the effects of opioid abuse on municipal finance. We employ instrumental variables, border discontinuity difference-in-differences regressions, and coarsened exact matching to identify consistent causal effects, while controlling for variation in economic conditions and demographics. Opioid abuse lowers credit ratings, increases new offer yields, and reduces bond issuance. Reversal of these effects following effective antiopioid legislation further supports causality. Differential effects due to investor heterogeneity suggest that opioid abuse affects municipal finance through a capital supply channel. Overall, we conclude that local opioid abuse impedes municipalities’ access to capital and thus hurts their ability to provide public services and infrastructure.

Navigating investment decisions with social connectedness: Implications for venture capital

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 155, 106979 open access
This study examines how the geographical structure of social networks shapes venture capital (VC) investment decisions. We find that VC firms invest more in portfolio companies in socially connected regions. The effect is more pronounced among independent, smaller, less reputable, early–stage–focused VC firms and those not from a VC hub. We further document that social connectedness lowers the likelihood of a successful exit since it induces VC firms to undertake suboptimal investment decisions. Overall, our findings highlight the role of social connectedness in constituting the geographical differences in VC firms’ capital allocation and investment outcomes.