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Rethinking Production under Uncertainty

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2021 11(1), 1-59 open access
Conventional models of production under uncertainty specify that output is produced in fixed proportions across states of nature. I investigate a representation of technology that allows firms to transform output from one state to another. I allow the firm to choose the distribution of its random productivity from a convex set of such distributions described by a limit on a moment of productivity scaled by a natural productivity shock. The model produces a simple discount factor that is linked to productivity and that can be used to price a wide variety of assets, without regard to preferences. Received November 26, 2019; editorial decision May 23, 2020 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

Efficient contracting and the choice of accounting method in the oil and gas industry

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1990 12(1-3), 173-205 open access
This paper's results are consistent with the choice of accounting method in the oil and gas industry being dominated by measurable characteristics of firms and guided by the principles of efficient contracting. The results are inconsistent with an alternative hypothesis, opportunistic behavior by managers. The efficient contracting explanation is also consistent with the empirical findings from earlier studies; [e.g., Lilien and Pastena (1982) and Deakin 1979)].

Renegotiations of Target CEOs' Personal Benefits During Mergers and Acquisitions

Contemporary Accounting Research 2018 35(4), 1999-2029 open access
Many view large payments following mergers or acquisitions as excessive and evidence of rent extraction. Using additional disclosures required by the SEC since 2006, I hand‐collect details of preexisting change in control ( CIC ) provisions in employment agreements and CIC benefits granted to target CEO s during mergers. I find that CIC benefits are renegotiated in approximately 50 percent of my sample. I then investigate whether renegotiation of CIC benefits tends to be opportunistic, or, instead, evidence of efficient contracting. The overall evidence is more consistent with efficient contracting. This contrasts prior research that focuses solely on certain components of CIC benefits, such as employment in merged firms or merger bonuses. I find that changes in CIC benefits are positively associated with the CEO 's horizon, as would be predicted by efficient contracting, but only limited evidence that changes in CIC benefits are positively associated with proxies for CEO power, as would be predicted by rent extraction. Acquiring firm shareholders interpret increases in target CEO s' CIC benefits as evidence of rent extraction, although I find that the merged firm's post‐merger performance is positively associated with changes in CIC benefits. This result is more consistent with acquiring firms providing target CEO s increased CIC benefits to complete mergers and realize synergies than with value‐reducing rent extraction.

Portfolios for Long-Term Investors

Review of Finance 2022 26(1), 1-42 open access
How should long-term investors form portfolios in our time-varying, multi-factor and friction-filled world? Two conceptual frameworks may help: first, look directly at the stream of payments that a portfolio and payout policy can produce. Second, include a general equilibrium view of the markets’ economic purpose, and the nature of investors’ different preferences, risk-taking ability, and function in that equilibrium. These perspectives can rationalize some of investors’ behaviors, suggest substantial revisions to standard portfolio theory, and help us to apply portfolio theory in a way that is useful in practice.

The information content of earnings and prices: A simultaneous equations approach

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1997 23(1), 53-81 open access
The price-earnings relation can be characterized as a system of simultaneous equations. Earnings and prices can behave as if they are both endogenously determined because they are jointly affected by information that is difficult to specify explicitly. Specification tests provide evidence that both earnings changes and price changes are endogenous. The price and earnings coefficients increase from OLS to joint estimation and, under a restrictive set of assumptions, provide increasingly similar estimates of the permanent component of earnings. The evidence is consistent with the contention that a portion of the single-equation bias can be mitigated via joint estimation.

Determinants of Corporate Leverage: A Time‐Series Analysis Using U.S. Tax Return Data*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1996 13(2), 487-504 open access
The study examines how the risk of exhausting corporate tax liabilities before deducting interest expense affects corporate leverage. It differs from prior studies in three ways: (1) it uses data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) from corporate tax returns rather than accounting data; (2) it measures risk of tax exhaustion more accurately; and (3) it adopts a first‐difference time‐series approach, so that firms act as their own control between adjacent years. These methodological innovations reduce biases caused by measurement error and omitted variables that were present in prior research. The results suggest that, all else being equal, high risk of tax exhaustion reduces firms' use of leverage. As well, the study provides the first evidence that personal taxes significantly affect corporate leverage. The effects on leverage decisions of other variables are also tested and the results are consistent with predictions from prior theoretical work.

Common risk factors in cross-sectional FX options returns

Review of Finance 2024 28(3), 897-944 open access
We identify a comprehensive list of thirty-eight characteristics for predicting cross-sectional FX options returns. We find that three factors—long-term straddle momentum, implied volatility, and illiquidity—can generate economically and statistically significant risk premia not explained by other return predictors. Meanwhile, the predictability of the other characteristics becomes insignificant after accounting for the FX option three-factor model. The significance of the three factors is confirmed through a series of robustness tests covering different data sources, alternative options strategies, diversification effects, bootstrapping, and omitting crisis years.

Transparency and market quality: Evidence from SuperMontage

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2009 18(1), 93-111 open access
In this study, we examine the effect of pre-trade transparency on market quality using data before and after the introduction of SuperMontage. Our results show that both bid–ask spreads and return volatility declined significantly after the implementation of SuperMontage. In addition, SuperMontage led to significant improvements in the SEC Rule 605 execution quality measures (e.g., faster executions and higher fill rates). Overall, our results indicate that SuperMontage improved market and execution quality on NASDAQ through greater pre-trade transparency and the integrated, more efficient quotation and trading system.