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Cross-Border Mergers as Instruments of Comparative Advantage

Review of Economic Studies 2007 74(4), 1229-1257 open access
A two-country model of oligopoly in general equilibrium is used to show how changes in market structure accompany the process of trade and capital-market liberalization. The model predicts that bilateral mergers in which low-cost firms buy out higher-cost foreign rivals are profitable under Cournot competition. As a result, trade liberalization can trigger international merger waves, in the process encouraging countries to specialize and trade more in accordance with comparative advantage. With symmetric countries, welfare is likely to rise, though the distribution of income always shifts towards profits.

Rationalizing the Penn World Table: True Multilateral Indices for International Comparisons of Real Income

American Economic Review 2004 94(5), 1411-1428 open access
Real incomes are routinely compared internationally using methods that “correct” for deviations from purchasing power parity. The most widely used of these is the Geary method which, though theoretically suspect, underlies the Penn World Table. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for the Geary method which I call the GAIA (“Geary-Allen International Accounts”) system. I show that the Geary method is exact when preferences are non-homothetic Leontief and, more generally, gives a (possibly poor) approximation to the GAIA benchmark. An empirical application suggests that both it and other widely used methods underestimate the degree of international inequality.

New Characteristics and Hedonic Price Index Numbers

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2023 105(3), 665-682 open access
Changes in product characteristics on the extensive margin (the addition of new features and the removal of old ones) are an important and hitherto neglected dimension of quality change. Standard techniques for adjusting price indices for new goods cannot handle such changes satisfactorily, and this leads to an economically and statistically significant bias in the measurement of prices and real output. We combine insights from the theories of exact index numbers and demand for characteristics to develop a new method for incorporating changes on the extensive characteristic margin. Applied to U.K. data on new car sales, our method leads to revisions in estimated inflation rates for this commodity group that are both plausible and quantitatively important.

Toward a Reconstruction of Keynesian Economics: Expectations and Constrained Equilibria

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1983 98, 199 open access
A two-period model of temporary equilibrium with rationing is presented, paying particular attention to agents' expectations of future constraints. It is shown that with arbitrary constraint expectations many different types of current equilibrium may be consistent with the same set of (current and expected future) wages and prices, and that constraint expectations exhibit "bootstraps" properties (e.g., a higher expectation of Keynesian unemployment tomorrow increases the probability that it will prevail today). In addition, the concept of rational constraint expectations (i.e., perfect foresight of future constraints) is introduced and shown to enhance rather than reduce the effectiveness of government policy.

Not So Demanding: Demand Structure and Firm Behavior

American Economic Review 2017 107(12), 3835-3874 open access
We show that any well-behaved demand function can be represented by its “demand manifold,” a smooth curve that relates the elasticity and convexity of demand. This manifold is a sufficient statistic for many comparative statics questions; leads naturally to characterizations of new families of demand functions that nest most of those used in applied economics; and connects assumptions about demand structure with firm behavior and economic performance. In particular, the demand manifold leads to new insights about industry adjustment with heterogeneous firms, and can be empirically estimated to provide a quantitative framework for measuring the effects of globalization.