A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. We present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. We find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity.

In the Netherlands, the average exit rate out of welfare is dramatically low. Most welfare recipients have to comply with guidelines on job search effort that are imposed by the welfare agency. If they do not, then a sanction in the form of a temporary benefit reduction can be imposed. This article investigates the effect of such sanctions on the transition rate from welfare to work using a unique set of rich register data on welfare recipients. We find that the imposition of sanctions substantially increases the individual transition rate from welfare to work.