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Productivity Dynamics with Technology Choice: An Application to Automobile Assembly

Review of Economic Studies 2003 70(1), 167-198 open access
During the 1980's, all Japanese automobile producers opened assembly plants in North America. Industry analysts and previous research claim that these transplants are more productive than incumbent plants and that they produce with a substantially different production process. I compare the production processes by estimating a model that allows for heterogeneity in technology and productivity, both of which are intrinsically unobservable. The model is estimated on a panel of assembly plants, controlling for capacity utilization and price effects. The results indicate that the more recent technology uses capital more intensively and it has a higher elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Hicks-neutral productivity growth is estimated to be lower, while capital-biased (labour-saving) productivity growth is higher for the new technology. Using the estimation results, I decompose industry-wide productivity growth and find plant-level changes in lean plants to be the most important contributor. Plant-level productivity growth is further decomposed to reveal the importance of capital-biased productivity growth, increases in the capital-labour ratio, and returns to scale.

Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2010 92(1), 128-144 open access
This paper investigates whether one of the most important U.S. policies toward Africa of the past few decades achieved its desired result. In 2000, the United States dropped trade restrictions on a broad list of products through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Since the act was applied selectively to both countries and products, we can estimate the impact with a triple difference-in-differences estimation, controlling for both country and product-level import surges at the time of onset. This approach allows us to better address the endogeneity-of-policy critique of standard difference-in-differences estimation than if either a country- or a product-level analysis was performed separately. Despite the fact that the AGOA product list was chosen to not include import-sensitive products and despite the general challenges of transaction costs in African countries, we find that AGOA had a large and robust impact on apparel imports into the United States, as well as on the agricultural and manufactured products covered by AGOA. These import responses grew over time and were the largest in product categories where the tariffs removed were large. AGOA did not result in a decrease in exports to Europe in these product categories, suggesting that the AGOA exports were not merely diverted from other destinations. We discuss how the effects vary across countries and the implications of these findings for aggregate export volumes.

The Relationship between Market Structure and Innovation in Industry Equilibrium: A Case Study of the Global Automobile Industry

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2016 98(1), 192-208 open access
We specify and estimate a dynamic game to study the equilibrium relationship between market structure and innovation in the automobile industry. The quality of each firm’s product for the average consumer, the key state variable, is modeled as stochastically increasing in innovation,the dynamic control, which is proxied by patent applications. Equilibrium innovation is a function of market structure, the vector of quality levels of all active firms, and the cost of R&D. Our main findings are as follows:(a) optimal innovation has an inverted-U shape in own quality; (b) holding own quality constant, innovation is declining in average rival quality but increasing in quality dispersion; and (c) following entry, each incumbent’s innovation declines, but aggregate innovation increases in most market structures. These findings are broadly consistent with the Schumpeterian hypothesis that market power leads to more innovation.

WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms

American Economic Review 2017 107(9), 2784-2820 open access
We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the average effect of tariff reductions on both. Several novel findings emerge. First, cuts in output tariffs reduce markups, but raise productivity. Second, pro-competitive effects are most important among incumbents, while efficiency gains dominate for new entrants. Third, cuts in input tariffs raise both markups and productivity. We highlight mechanisms that explain these findings in the Chinese context.