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Multifactor Evaluation of Style Rotation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2005 40(2), 349-372 open access
A growing literature documents that various strategies of rotating across equity styles generate significant returns. However, the conventional risk adjustment regression is problematic in evaluating the gains from style rotation. I propose a weight-based multifactor risk adjustment approach as a solution. When interpreted as a performance attribution procedure, this approach extends Sharpe's (1992) classic method by emphasizing factor loading rotation. I use a logit-based timing strategy to show that the conventional procedure produces misleading results and the new method leads to the opposite conclusion.

Price Shocks, News Disclosures, and Asymmetric Drifts

The Accounting Review 2014 89(5), 1805-1834 open access
Motivated by investor disagreement and corporate disclosure literatures, we examine how stock price shocks affect future stock returns. We find that both large short-term price drops and hikes are followed by negative abnormal returns over the subsequent year, consistent with the conjecture that price shocks are useful indicators of intertemporal spikes in investor disagreement and investor opinion converges gradually. The asymmetric drifts involve return continuation for negative price shocks versus return reversal for positive price shocks, and are in sharp contrast to the general findings of symmetric drifts in corporate event studies. Moreover, price shocks associated with public news events are followed by significantly weaker downward drifts, suggesting that news disclosures mitigate disagreement-induced overpricing. Examining the dynamics of a disagreement proxy during and after price shocks, we provide further evidence for the disagreement hypothesis. The economic significance of the price shock effect is illustrated with a revised momentum strategy that generates an annualized abnormal return of 16.92 percent.