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Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective

Review of Finance 2017 21(2), 465-509 open access
We test whether ratings are comparable across asset classes. We examine default rates by initial rating, accuracy ratios, migration metrics, instantaneous upgrade and downgrade intensities, and rating changes over bonds’ lives in multivariate regressions. These approaches reveal substantial and persistent differences across broad asset classes, as well as across subcategories of structured finance products. Our results are best explained by variation in rating agency incentives and variation in underlying risk profiles. We conclude that regulations requiring ratings to perform comparably across asset classes will prove difficult to enforce. We advocate instead a regulatory framework that better distinguishes risks and incentives across asset classes.

Opioid Crisis Effects on Municipal Finance

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(4), 2019-2066 open access
We investigate the effects of opioid abuse on municipal finance. We employ instrumental variables, border discontinuity difference-in-differences regressions, and coarsened exact matching to identify consistent causal effects, while controlling for variation in economic conditions and demographics. Opioid abuse lowers credit ratings, increases new offer yields, and reduces bond issuance. Reversal of these effects following effective antiopioid legislation further supports causality. Differential effects due to investor heterogeneity suggest that opioid abuse affects municipal finance through a capital supply channel. Overall, we conclude that local opioid abuse impedes municipalities’ access to capital and thus hurts their ability to provide public services and infrastructure.