I show that median earnings surprise has shifted rightward from small negative (miss analyst estimates by a small amount) to zero (meet analyst estimates exactly) to small positive (beat analyst estimates by a small amount) during the 16 years, 1984 to 1999. I show that a rightward temporal shift in median surprise from negative to positive describes earnings, but neither profits nor losses. Median profit surprise shifts within the positive quadrant, from zero to one cent per share. Median loss surprise shifts within the negative quadrant from extreme negative (about ‐33 cents per share) to zero. I show that the median surprise for profits exceeds that for losses in every year. I document significant positive temporal trends in both meet and beat analyst estimates for both profits and losses, but I find a greater frequency of profits that either meet or beat analyst estimates in every year. I find a significant positive temporal trend in positive profits that are “a little bit of good news,” and a significant negative temporal trend in managers who report losses that are an “extreme amount of bad news.” My results are robust to the four internal validity threats I consider—namely temporal changes in: (1) analyst forecast accuracy, (2) the mix of earnings of one sign preceded by earnings of another sign four quarters ago, (3) the timeliness of the most recent analyst forecast, and (4) the I/B/E/S definition of actual earnings. I find that managers of growth firms are relatively more likely than managers of value firms to report good news profits. I show that when they do report positive profit surprises, managers of growth firms are more likely to report “a little bit of good news” in every year.

Accounting changes, Analyst forecasts, Forecast accuracy, Earnings announcement

Determining familiarity with and evaluating quality of accounting journals are of interest to various parties in accounting academia. In recent years, the number of accounting journals has grown, and many special‐interest subgroups have arisen. This study surveys senior faculty at Business Week's “best 40 MBA programs” to determine their familiarity with and quality perceptions of 44 accounting journals. As to familiarity, 5 journals were nearly universally known, and a total of 15 had wide recognition. Financial, managerial, and auditing faculty exhibited similar familiarity patterns, while tax faculty had a somewhat different pattern. As to quality perceptions, relatively few journals achieved high quality evaluations. There was, however, general consensus across the different subject‐area faculty as to the top journals. Special consideration was given to the newer (post‐1980) journals. Six of the 19 newer journals in the study achieved high familiarity scores, and 3 achieved high quality evaluations. Résumé. Le degré de connaissance des publications comptables et la perception de la qualité de ces publications sont des sujets qui intéressent divers membres de la communauté universitaire œuvrant dans le domaine comptable. Depuis quelques années, le nombre des publications comptables a augmenté, et maints sous‐groupes d'intérêt particuliers ont vu le jour. Les auteurs ont réalisé un sondage auprès de professeurs d'expérience enseignant dans le cadre des quarante meilleurs programmes MBA répertoriés par Business Week , afin de déterminer dans quelle mesure ils connaissaient 44 publications comptables et quelle était leur perception de la qualité de ces publications. En ce qui a trait à la connaissance, 5 publications sont presque universellement connues et 15 au total ont un grand rayonnement. Les professeurs de finance, de gestion et de vérification ont affiché des profils de connaissance analogues, tandis que les professeurs de fiscalité présentaient un profil quelque peu différent. Quant à la perception, de la qualité, relativement peu de publications ont obtenu la cote ≪ qualité élevée ≫. L'on a cependant observé un consensus général chez les professeurs des différentes disciplines ers ce qui a trait aux publications de prestige. Une attention particulière a été accordée aux publications plus récentes (postérieures à 1980). Six des 19 publications plus récentes de l'étude ont obtenu une cote élevée relativement au degré de connaissance, et 3 d'entre elles ont obtenu une cote élevée relativement à la qualité.

Analysts forecasts, Interim reporting, Time-series, Analyst forecast revisions

Lawrence D. Brown, Michael S. Rozeff, Univariate Time-Series Models of Quarterly Accounting Earnings per Share: A Proposed Model, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 17, No. 1 (Spring, 1979), pp. 179-189

Applying a Burgstahler and Dichev (1997)/Degeorge et al. (1999) type methodology to quarterly data for the 1985–2002 time period, we show that, since the mid-1990s, but not before then, managers seek to avoid negative quarterly earnings surprises more than to avoid either quarterly losses or quarterly earnings decreases. Our findings suggest that the quarterly earnings threshold hierarchy proposed by Degeorge et al. (1999) does not apply to recent years, and that managers' claim that avoiding quarterly earnings decreases is the threshold they most seek to achieve (Graham et al. 2004) is inconsistent with their actions. We provide an intuitively appealing economic rationale for why the shift in threshold hierarchy occurred; since the mid-1990s, but not before then, investors unambiguously rewarded (penalized) firms for reporting quarterly earnings meeting (missing) analysts' estimates more than they did for meeting (missing) the other two thresholds. We provide several explanations for why investors unambiguously reward firms for reporting quarterly earnings that meet or beat analysts' estimates more than for meeting the other two thresholds late (but not early) in our sample period: increased media coverage given to analyst forecasts, more analyst following, more firms covered by analysts, and temporal increases in both the accuracy and precision of analyst forecasts.

Lawrence D. Brown, Gordon D. Richardson, Steven J. Schwager, An Information Interpretation of Financial Analyst Superiority in Forecasting Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Spring, 1987), pp. 49-67

Examines the influence of annual earnings announcements on financial forecasts. Convergence of beliefs; Earnings surprise; Suggestion that annual earnings announcement should increase the convergence of analysts' forecasts of future earnings.

Analyst forecasts, Analyst forecast consensus, Market association, Timely aggregate analyst forecasts