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Why are Wages Cyclical in the 1970s?

Journal of Labor Economics 1990 8(1, Part 1), 16-47 open access
This article investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982, using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. There is little evidence that movements in and out of the labor market induced aggregate wage cyclicality during these years. However, cyclicality in the movement of workers between heterogeneous labor-market sectors affected aggregate wage cyclicality. While sector location is important, sector selectivity is not correlated with wages. Yet, even within sectors, cyclicality is present in real wages over this time period and is the result of cyclicality in overall wage levels, as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics.

Effectiveness of accounting-based dividend covenants

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1990 12(1-3), 97-123 open access
Accounting-based dividend constraints in lending contracts are imperfect means of mitigating conflicts of interests between stockholders and bondholders since managers have flexibility to make accounting decisions to circumvent the covenants. This paper documents firms' accounting and dividend responses to an increase in the tightness of dividend constraints. Firms cut dividends and do not appear to make accounting changes to circumvent the dividend restriction. The magnitude of the dividend cut is proportional to the tightness of the dividend constraint. This suggests that accounting-based covenants are effective means for bondholders to restrict firmsś dividend policies.

Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1990 72(1), 1 open access
Two implications of received theory are (1) mineral net prices rise at the riskless interest rate, and (2) in-ground value is equal to the current net price. Both propositions are false. A correct theory has been joined to mistaken premises. Mineral resources are inexhaustible. The economic problem is not the intertemporal allocation of a stock but coping with the cost of a flow of reserve accretions. Mineral scarcity and price are the uncertain fluctuating result of a tug-of-war between diminishing returns versus increasing knowledge. Hence minerals are risky assets. Development cost, finding cost, and user cost (the penalty for development/production today instead of tomorrow) are all substitutes. Hence change in any one is a proxy for change in any other. Development cost is observable, and has been stable in many countries for pro- longed periods. User cost was also stable in the USA. There is no sign of any pattern of gradual depletion and rising cost. A simple model of an individual reservoir explains observed relations of value and price. The rate of interest has both a positive and negative effect upon the rate of reservoir depletion. The net effect of a change is therefore weak. Expropriation of low-cost oil fields, had they been operated independently to maximize value, would have led to drastic increases in depletion rates. The fact of decrease proves collusive restriction of output to maintain prices.

Repeated Games with Long-Run and Short-Run Players

Review of Economic Studies 1990 57(4), 555 open access
This paper studies the set of equilibrium payoffs in repeated games with long- and short-run players and little discounting. Because the short-run players are unconcerned about the future, each equilibrium outcome is constrained to lie on their static reaction (best-response) curves. The natural extension of the folk theorem to games of this sort would simply include this constraint in the definitions of the feasible payoffs and minmax values. In fact, this extension does obtain under the assumption that each player's choice of a mixed strategy for the stage game is publicly observable but, in contrast to standard repeated games, the set of equilibrium payoffs is different if players can observe only their opponents' realized actions.