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Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(2), 309-340 open access
We analyze the response of small versus large manufacturing firms to monetary policy. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of financial propagation mechanisms for aggregate activity. We find that small firms account for a significantly disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows tightening of monetary policy. They play a surprisingly prominent role in the slowdown of inventory demand. Large firms initially borrow to accumulate inventories. After a brief period, small firms quickly shed inventories. We attempt to sort financial from nonfinancial explanations with evidence on asymmetries and on balance sheet effects on inventory demand across size classes.

Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(1), 149-182 open access
The tax haven affiliates of American corporations account for more than 20 percent of U. S. foreign direct investment, and nearly a third of the foreign profits of U. S. firms. American companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on their tax haven investments in 1982. This behavior implies that the revenue-maximizing tax rate for a typical haven is around 5–8 percent. American (and foreign) investment in tax havens has an uncertain effect on U. S. tax revenue, but since low tax rates encourage American companies to shift profits out of high-tax foreign countries, it is possible that low foreign tax rates ultimately enhance U. S. tax collections.

The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(2), 322-347 open access
Firm numbers first rise, then later fall, as an industry evolves. This nonmonotonicity is explained using a competitive model in which innovation opportunities fuel entry and relative failure to innovate prompts exit; equilibrium time paths for price and quantity also share features of the data. The model is estimated using data from the U.S. automobile tire industry, a particularly dramatic example of the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers. Copyright 1994 by University of Chicago Press.

Information, trading, and volatility

Journal of Financial Economics 1994 36(1), 127-154 open access
We examine the effects of trading and information flows on the short-run behavior of stock prices by comparing the behavior of stock return volatility during trading and nontrading periods. We define nontrading periods as periods when exchanges and businesses are open but traders endogenously choose not to trade. After correcting for the bid/ask bounce and stickiness in quotes, we find that a large proportion of daily stock return volatility occurs without trades, especially for large firms. Furthermore, we provide new evidence that public (versus private) information is the major source of short-term return volatility.

Tax-Induced Intertemporal Restrictions on Security Returns

Journal of Finance 1994 49(4), 1347 open access
This article derives testable restrictions on equilibrium asset prices when investors have the option to time the realization of their capital gains and losses for tax purposes. The tax-timing option alters both the magnitude and timing of equity returns relative to those in a tax-free model. The tax-induced restrictions are empirically examined, and the tax rates and preference parameters are estimated. While the tax-free model can be rejected in favor of the tax-based model as the specified alternative, the tax-based model is still unable to adequately explain cross-sectional differences in asset returns. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)