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Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2017 99(2), 243-257 open access
We present new evidence on the evolution of labor mobility in the United States over the past four decades. Building on the seminal methodology by Blanchard and Katz (1992), combined with multiple sources of regional population and migration data, we show that interstate mobility in response to relative labor demand conditions is not as high as previously established and has been weakening since the early 1990s. In addition, we find that mobility is countercyclical: net migration across regions responds more strongly to spatial disparities in recessions than in normal times. While the declining trend in mobility has been driven by weaker out-migration from states experiencing negative relative shocks, the mobility surge in recessions is mostly accounted for by temporarily stronger in-migration to better-performing states.

Tariffs, corporate cash holdings, and innovation

Journal of Corporate Finance 2026 98, 102960 open access
We study how trade liberalization affects financial and innovation decisions of large firms across major G7 countries. We document how firms increase their cash holdings when their country’s trading partners lower their import tariffs, while we find no effect of a decrease in the country’s own import tariffs. Specifically, we find that the increase in cash holdings occurs before tariff cuts by trading partners and is associated with higher R&D spending and patent filing after the cuts. Our results are consistent with the predictions of a model in which higher expected returns to innovation from enhanced export market access lead to higher cash buffers.