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An Examination of Heterogeneous Beliefs with a Short-Sale Constraint in a Dynamic Economy

Review of Finance 2008 12(2), 323-364 open access
We study the effects of a market-wide short-sale constraint in a dynamic economy with heterogeneous beliefs. Imposing the constraint reduces the stock price if the optimistic investors' intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) is less than one and increases the stock price if the optimist's IES is greater than one. In calibrated examples, the optimist's market price of risk falls and the interest rate rises when the constraint binds. Imposing the constraint leads to a higher stock volatility if the optimist's IES is less than one and a lower stock volatility if the IES is greater than one.

Taxable and Tax-Deferred Investing with the Limited Use of Losses

Review of Finance 2017 21(5), 1847-1873 open access
We study the impact of the different tax treatment of capital gains and losses on the optimal location of assets in taxable and tax-deferred accounts. The classical result of Black (1980) and Tepper (1981) suggests that investors should follow a strict pecking order asset location rule and hold those assets that are subject to the highest tax rate preferentially in tax-deferred accounts. We show that with the different tax treatment of realized gains and losses, only tax-efficient equity mutual funds are optimally held in taxable accounts, whereas mutual funds with average tax-(in)efficiency are preferentially held in tax-deferred accounts.

Heuristic portfolio trading rules with capital gain taxes

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 119(3), 611-625 open access
We study the out-of-sample performance of portfolio trading strategies used when an investor faces capital gain taxation and proportional transaction costs. Overlaying simple tax trading heuristics on trading strategies improves out-of-sample performance. For medium to large transaction costs, no trading strategy can outperform a 1/N trading strategy augmented with a tax heuristic, not even the most tax and transaction cost-efficient buy-and-hold strategy. Overall, the best strategy is 1/N augmented with a heuristic that allows for a fixed deviation in absolute portfolio weights. Our results thus show that the best trading strategies balance diversification considerations and tax considerations.

Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 127(3), 459-484 open access
We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real side of the economy. We show theoretically and empirically that inflation disagreement raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in fixed income securities. Calibrating our model to disagreement, inflation, and yields reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on yield curves.