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The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices

Journal of Finance 2021 76(2), 797-844 open access
How do investors perceive dependence between stock returns; and how does their perception of dependence affect investments and stock prices? We show experimentally that investors understand differences in dependence, but not in terms of correlation. Participants invest as if applying a simple counting heuristic for the frequency of comovement. They diversify more when the frequency of comovement is lower even if correlation is higher due to dependence in the tails. Building on our experimental findings, we empirically analyze U.S. stock returns. We identify a robust return premium for stocks with high frequencies of comovement with the market return.

Advertising, Attention, and Financial Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(10), 4676-4720 open access
Using daily advertising data, we analyze the short-term effects of advertising on investor attention and on financial market outcomes. Based on various investor attention proxies, we show that advertising positively affects attention. However, it has only little impact on turnover and liquidity. Most importantly, short-term stock returns are not significantly influenced by advertising. Further results suggest that previous findings of an economically significant positive relation between advertising and returns are due to reverse causality. Thus, the belief that stock prices can be temporarily inflated via advertising is misguided.

Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 115, 105809 open access
We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock’s return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest. This effect is not driven by linear or downside liquidity risk or extreme downside return risk and is mainly driven by more recent years. There is no premium for stocks whose liquidity is lowest when market liquidity is lowest.