We formalize the effects of an earnings disclosure on security prices under an assumption of limited liability. We derive various nonlinear relations between equity prices and earnings under a variety of capital structure assumptions and. if possible, we tie the relations attained to results from the existing empirical literature. We also characterize how debt prices respond to earnings when holders of debt have limited liability. Finally, we analyze how changes in the degree of leverage and conversion features of debt affect the relation between price and earnings.
Review of Accounting Studies202631(2), 1342-1370open access
We analyze how incentives affect the reporting of fair values using mutual funds’ valuations of Level 3 equity holdings. We conjecture that the observed stickiness of reported values arises because funds defer revaluation until they can make a sufficiently compelling and objective case to avoid costly accusations of aggressive valuation. Consistent with our conjecture, we find that funds’ revaluations of the same security are clustered in time and tightly distributed, and revaluations of non-traded securities are more likely when market returns are larger and the source of those returns is less subjective. In addition, consistent with a greater concern for overvaluation, we document that funds are more likely to reduce valuations of these holdings when market returns are negative. Finally, given the stickiness of valuations, we provide evidence that funds exploit valuation discretion to improve performance rankings through the timing of revaluations rather than through the levels of new values.
Journal of Accounting Research201351(2), 225-266open access
We decompose quantitative management earnings forecasts into macroeconomic and firm‐specific components to determine the extent to which voluntary disclosure provided by management has macroeconomic information content. We provide evidence that the forecasts of bellwether firms, which are defined as firms in which macroeconomic news explains the greatest amount of variation in the forecasts, provide timely information to the market about the macroeconomy when bundled with earnings announcements. Further, we show that bellwether firms provide timely information about both industry‐specific events and broader economic events. Finally, we document that the macroeconomic news in individual forecasts is more pronounced for bad news and point forecasts.
Journal of Accounting Research200745(5), 915-946open access
There is growing interest in the use of markets within firms. Proponents have noted that markets are a simple and efficient mechanism for allocating resources in economies in which information is dispersed. In contrast to the use of markets in the broader economy, the efficiency of an internal market is determined in large part by the endogenous contractual incentives provided to the participating, privately informed agents. In this paper, we study the optimal design of managerial incentives when resources are allocated by an internal auction market, as well as the efficiency of the resulting resource allocations. We show that the internal auction market can achieve first‐best resource allocations and decisions, but only at an excessive cost in compensation payments. We then identify conditions under which the internal auction market and associated optimal incentive contracts achieve the benchmark second‐best outcome as determined using a direct revelation mechanism. The advantage of the auction is that it is easier to implement than the direct revelation mechanism. When the internal auction mechanism is unable to achieve second‐best, we characterize the factors that determine the magnitude of the shortfall. Overall, our results speak to the robust performance of relatively simple market mechanisms and associated incentive systems in resolving resource allocation problems within firms.