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Insuring Consumption Using Income-Linked Assets

Review of Finance 2011 15(4), 835-873 open access
We evaluate financial assets with payoffs linked to individual labor income, as conceived by Shiller (2003) and others. Using a realistically calibrated life-cycle model, we find that such assets can generate nontrivial welfare benefits, depending on the precise structure of the instrument. However, the assets we consider can only eliminate a relatively small fraction of the welfare costs of labor income risk over the life cycle. We highlight the fact that although the purpose of such assets is to smooth consumption across states of nature, one must also consider the assets' effects on households' ability to smooth consumption over time.

The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market

Journal of Finance 2024 79(4), 2553-2602 open access
We introduce a new measure of the price charged by financial intermediaries for connecting mortgage borrowers with capital market investors. Based on administrative lender pricing data, we document that the price of intermediation reacts strongly to variation in demand, reflecting capacity constraints of mortgage originators. This positive comovement of price with quantity reduced the pass‐through of quantitative easing. We also find a notable upward trend in this price between 2008 and 2014, likely due to increased legal and regulatory burden in the mortgage market. The trend led to an implicit cost to borrowers of nearly $100 billion over this period.

Mortgage prepayment, race, and monetary policy

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 147(3), 498-524 open access
Black and Hispanic homeowners pay significantly higher mortgage interest rates than white and Asian homeowners. We show that the main reason is that white and Asian borrowers are much more likely to exploit periods of falling interest rates by refinancing their mortgages or moving. Black and Hispanic borrowers face challenges refinancing because, on average, they have lower credit scores, equity and income. But even holding those factors constant, Black and Hispanic borrowers refinance less, suggesting that other factors are at play. Because they are more likely to exploit lower interest rates, white borrowers benefit more from monetary expansions. Policies that reduce barriers to refinancing for minority borrowers and alternative mortgage contract designs can reduce racial mortgage pricing inequality.

Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(3), 1098-1131 open access
This paper uses new data from the PSID to quantify the relative importance of negative equity versus ability to pay, in driving mortgage defaults between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. Changes in ability to pay have large estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on the propensity to default as a 35% decline in equity. Strategic motives are also found to be quantitatively important, as we estimate more than 38% of households in default could make their mortgage payments without reducing consumption.