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Antibiotic Demand in the Presence of Antimicrobial Resistance

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 open access
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increases healthcare costs, hospital stays, and mortality. This study examines how AMR affects antibiotic prescribing for cystitis in France (2002–2019), using data from general practitioners. A decision model is developed to capture prescribing behavior with and without rapid bacterial or susceptibility testing. To address endogeneity, veterinary antibiotic sales are used as instruments. Results show rising resistance prompts drug substitution, and physicians respond to predictable resistance trends. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reducing animal antibiotic use and limiting fluoroquinolones lowers resistance but affects substitution and consumer welfare differently. The study also assesses the value of rapid diagnostic testing.

On the Effect of Parallel Trade on Manufacturers' and Retailers' Profits in the Pharmaceutical Sector

Econometrica 2020 88(6), 2503-2545 open access
Differences in regulated pharmaceutical prices within the European Economic Area create arbitrage opportunities that pharmacy retailers can access through parallel imports. For prescription drugs under patent, parallel trade affects the sharing of profits among an innovating pharmaceutical company, retailers, and parallel traders. We develop a structural model of demand and supply in which retailers can choose the set of goods to sell, thus foreclosing consumers' access to less profitable drugs. This allows retailers to bargain and obtain lower wholesale prices from the manufacturer and parallel trader. With detailed transaction data from Norway, we identify a demand model with unobserved choice sets using retail‐side conditions for optimal assortment decisions of pharmacies. We find that retailer incentives play a significant role in fostering parallel trade penetration and that banning parallel imports would benefit manufacturers as well as prevent pharmacies from foreclosing the manufacturer's product. Finally, in the case of the statin market in Norway, we show that it would be possible to decrease spending and increase profits of the original manufacturer through lump sum transfers associated with a lower reimbursement price, thus decreasing price differentiation across countries.

Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?

American Economic Review 2014 104(3), 832-867 open access
Food purchases differ substantially across countries. We use detailed household-level data from the United States, France, and the United Kingdom to (i) document these differences; (ii) estimate a demand system for food and nutrients; and (iii) simulate counterfactual choices if households faced prices and nutritional characteristics from other countries. We find that differences in prices and characteristics are important and can explain some difference (e.g., United States–France difference in caloric intake) but generally cannot explain many of the compositional patterns by themselves. Instead, it seems an interaction between the economic environment and differences in preferences is needed to explain cross-country differences.

The Effects of Banning Advertising in Junk Food Markets

Review of Economic Studies 2018 85(1), 396-436 open access
There are growing calls to restrict advertising of junk foods. Whether such a move will improve diet quality will depend on how advertising shifts consumer demands and how firms respond. We study an important and typical junk food market-the potato chips market. We exploit consumer level exposure to adverts to estimate demand, allowing advertising to potentially shift the weight consumers place on product healthiness, tilt demand curves, have dynamic effects and spillover effects across brands. We simulate the impact of a ban and show that the potential health benefits are partially offset by firms lowering prices and by consumer switching to other junk foods.

How Well Targeted Are Soda Taxes?

American Economic Review 2020 110(11), 3661-3704 open access
Soda taxes aim to reduce excessive sugar consumption. We assess who is most impacted by soda taxes. We estimate demand using micro longitudinal data covering on-the-go purchases, and exploit the panel dimension to estimate individual-specific preferences. We relate these preferences and counterfactual predictions to individual characteristics and show that soda taxes are relatively effective at targeting the sugar intake of the young, are less successful at targeting the intake of those with high total dietary sugar, and are unlikely to be strongly regressive especially if consumers benefit from averted internalities.