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The Network Structure of International Trade

American Economic Review 2014 104(11), 3600-3634 open access
Motivated by empirical evidence I uncover on the dynamics of French firms' exports, I offer a novel theory of trade frictions. Firms export only into markets where they have a contact. They search directly for new trading partners, but also use their existing network of contacts to search remotely for new partners. I characterize the dynamic formation of an international network of exporters in this model. Structurally, I estimate this model on French data and confirm its predictions regarding the distribution of the number of foreign markets accessed by exporters and the geographic distribution of exports. (JEL D85, F11, F14, L24)

Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade

American Economic Review 2008 98(4), 1707-1721 open access
By considering a model with identical firms, Krugman (1980) predicts that a higher elasticity of substitution between goods magnifies the impact of trade barriers on trade flows. In this paper, I introduce firm heterogeneity in a simple model of international trade. I prove that the extensive margin and the intensive margin are affected by the elasticity of substitution in exact opposite directions. When the distribution of productivity across firms is Pareto, the predictions of the Krugman model with representative firms are overturned: the impact of trade barriers on trade flows is dampened by the elasticity of substitution, and not magnified. (JEL F12, F13)

The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(1), 150-177 open access
The gravity equation in international trade states that bilateral exports are proportional to economic size and inversely proportional to geographic distance. While the role of size is well understood, that of distance remains mysterious. I offer an explanation for the role of distance: If (i) the distribution of firm sizes is Pareto, (ii) the average squared distance of a firm’s exports is an increasing power function of its size, and (iii) a parameter restriction holds, then the distance elasticity of trade is constant for long distances. When the firm size distribution follows Zipf’s law, trade is inversely proportional to distance.

The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment

American Economic Review 2012 102(6), 2381-2409 open access
What is the impact of real estate prices on corporate investment? In the presence of financing frictions, firms use pledgeable assets as collateral to finance new projects. Through this collateral channel, shocks to the value of real estate can have a large impact on aggregate investment. To compute the sensitivity of investment to collateral value, we use local variations in real estate prices as shocks to the collateral value of firms that own real estate. Over the 1993–2007 period, the representative US corporation invests $0.06 out of each $1 of collateral. (JEL D22, G31, R30)

The Immigrant Next Door

American Economic Review 2024 114(2), 348-384 open access
We study how decades-long exposure to individuals of a given foreign descent shapes natives’ attitudes and behavior toward that group. Using individualized donations data, we show that long-term exposure to a given foreign ancestry leads to more generous behavior specifically toward that group’s ancestral country. Focusing on exposure to Arab Muslims to examine mechanisms, we show that long-term exposure (i) decreases explicit and implicit prejudice against Arab Muslims, (ii) reduces support for policies and political candidates hostile toward Arab Muslims, (iii) increases charitable donations to Arab countries, (iv) leads to more personal contact with Arab Muslims, and (v) increases knowledge of Arab Muslims and Islam. (JEL D64, D83, D91, J15)

Migrants, Ancestors, and Foreign Investments

Review of Economic Studies 2019 86(4), 1448-1486 open access
We use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the U.S. to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of U.S. counties on foreign direct investment (FDI) sent and received by local firms. To isolate the causal effect of ancestry on FDI, we build a simple reduced-form model of migrations: Migrations from a foreign country to a U.S. county at a given time depend on (1) a push factor, causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire U.S., and (2) a pull factor, causing immigration from all origins into that U.S. county. The interaction between time-series variation in origin-specific push factors and destination-specific pull factors generates quasi-random variation in the allocation of migrants across U.S. counties. We find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in FDI with that country by 4 percentage points. We present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions, and not by better contract enforcement, taste similarities, or a convergence in factor endowments.

Quantifying Reduced‐Form Evidence on Collateral Constraints

Journal of Finance 2022 77(4), 2143-2181 open access
ABSTRACT This paper quantifies the aggregate effects of financing constraints. We start from a standard dynamic investment model with collateral constraints. In contrast to the existing quantitative literature, our estimation does not target the mean leverage ratio to identify the scope of financing frictions. Instead, we use a reduced‐form coefficient from the recent corporate finance literature that connects exogenous debt capacity shocks to corporate investment. Relative to a frictionless benchmark, collateral constraints induce losses of 7.1% for output and 1.4% for total factor productivity (TFP) (misallocation). We show these estimated losses tend to be more robust to misspecification than estimates obtained by targeting leverage.

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth

American Economic Review 2026 116(3), 828-861 open access
We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the United States since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5 percent. (JEL J15, J22, J31, J61, O31, R11, R23)