The problem dealt with in this article is whether we can indicate, with the help of measured economic concepts, the rate of savings--as a function of time--which maximizes utility over time. The author believes that his attempt has been unsuccessful, but hopes that the nature of the difficulties encountered may be of some help in future attempts to solve this problem. A problem regarding the most important decision to be taken for any development program.

Stimulated by Fleming's study on a related subject, the author compares four methods to eliminate balance of payments disequilibria between high-employment countries forming a closed group: (i) "discriminatory" import duties and subsidies, (ii) "discriminatory" duties only or the corresponding quantitative restrictions, (iii) nondiscriminatory duties, and (iv) devaluation or income adaptation. For each an "optimum version" is defined and chosen; they are compared as to (a) the loss in international trade and (b) the distribution of the "direct burden" between the countries (defined as the short-run loss in real expenditure). A number of rather specific simplifications are introduced, all tending to make the case as symmetric as possible with regard to countries and commodities. As a consequence of the high-employment hypothesis and of absence of production substitution, problems of optimum allocation of resources are ruled out; the approach is a short-run one. Only policies (i) and (iv) show no loss of trade, whereas the others do; but in the case of devaluation the "direct burden" is relatively heavier for the deficit countries than in the other three cases.

At the prevailing exchange rates and price levels it appears that, considering the current items of the balance of payments of the United States, demand for dollars surpasses their supply. Or in other terms: American exports to the rest of the world (taking goods and services together) surpass imports from the other countries. For the moment, one of the chief reasons is the heavy reconstruction demand in many countries, particularly European, together with the low level of productivity in these areas. Many experts expect, however, that the disequilibrium will remain to some extent after the reconstruction period. The possibility of a permanent disequilibrium will hamper, they fear, even the action needed to solve the temporary dificulties. Granting credits for reconstruction to war-hit countries is not attractive unless in the long run an equilibrium will develop. It seems worth while, therefore, to investigate in some more detail the possibilities of restoring the equilibrium in the current items of the American balance of payments.

Also published in: A.H. Hansen and R.V. Clemence (Eds), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income, Allen & Unwin, London, 1953, pp. 357-375

The present study consists of two kinds of approach: (1) a statistical research into the chief dynamic equations describing American business cycles between 1920 and 1932 and (2) a number of more general methodological remarks on this type of research with particular attention to problems of policy. In order to simplify exposition in many points, it seemed desirable to exemplify the general thought immediately; and for this reason the two approaches are more or less mixed.

textabstractThis survey may be opened with some apologetic remarks. The first is that to write a complete survey would mean to write a book. This has not been the intention of the editor, nor does it lie within the power of the present writer. Therefore, this survey is, in principle, incomplete, as will be easily seen by the many important authors whose work is not here discussed. The second remark is that a survey like this is, of necessity, one-sided and restricted. It is one-sided by reason of the special view of the writer on what is interesting and what is not; as, for example,this survey shows special interest in quantitative problems. It is restricted as a consequence of the fact that knowledge of nearly every individual about subjects more removed is less than about subjects in his direct neighborhood-both in a concrete and an abstract sense. The third remark relates to the subdivision of the material; it is difficult to represent, in a one-dimensional exposition, as the current text of a paper, a thing of multi-dimensional character.

textabstractAlso published in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 322-339

textabstractLes considérations suivantes se rapportent à la théorie des oscillations économiques. Comme résultat idéal de toutes les recherches à ce sujet, on peut,, il me semble, indiquer la découverte des causes et du mécanisme du mouvement cyclique général des affaires. Au point de vue quantitatif, on est encore loin d'avoir satisfait à cette exigence idéale. Un accord satisfaisant entre théorie et observation statistique n'existe que dans certains cas très simples. Pour les cas plus compliqués, il n'y a guère de t,héorie quantitative suffisamment élaborée, et les corrélations qu'on a trouvées expérimentalement manquent souvent d'une base logique assez fondée. Il y a donc ici un champ très étendu pour la Société d'ficonométrie. J'espère donner ici une petite contribution aux recherches théoriques dans ce champ. Cette contribution n'a cependant qu'un caractère préparatoire.

Also published in: ‘Jan Tinbergen Selected Papers’, edited by L.H. Klaassen, L.M. Koyck and H.J. Witteveen, Nort- Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1959, pp. 165-181

In recent years increasing use has been made of systems of social accounts, and a variety of new types and new forms of presentation have been suggested. The general features of such systems are: (a) the division of an economy into a number of groups or economic entities, mostly themselves a complex of elementary units, and (b) a summing up in the form of accounts of the transactions of various kinds between these economic entities. As a rule, the economy of one country is investigated, implying that all other countries are regarded as one single group. The economy considered may be split up into a number of separate groups. It is customary to distinguish between consumers' households, business enterprises, and the government sector. If special attention is to be given to banking problems for example, banks will constitute a separate group.