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The equity premium implied by production

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 98(2), 279-296 open access
This paper studies the determinants of the equity premium as implied by producers’ first-order conditions. A simple closed form expression is presented for the Sharpe ratio as a function of investment volatility and technology parameters. Calibrated to the US postwar economy, the model can match the historical first and second moments of the market return and the risk-free interest rate. The model also generates a very volatile Sharpe ratio and market price of risk.

Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles

Journal of Political Economy 2004 112(6), 1223-1256 open access
We measure the cost of consumption fluctuations using an approach that does not require the specification of preferences and instead uses asset prices. We measure the marginal cost of consumption fluctuations, the per unit benefit of a marginal reduction in consumption fluctuations expressed as a percentage of lifetime consumption. We find that the gains from eliminating all consumption uncertainty are very large. However, for consumption fluctuations corresponding to business cycle frequencies, we estimate the marginal cost to be between 0.08 percent and 0.49 percent of lifetime consumption.