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Option Return Predictability

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(3), 1394-1442 open access
We uncover new return predictability in the cross-section of delta-hedged equity options. Expected returns to writing delta-hedged calls are negatively correlated with stock price, profit margin, and firm profitability, but positively correlated with cash holding, cash flow variance, new shares issuance, total external financing, distress risk, and dispersion of analysts’ forecasts. Our option portfolio strategies have annual Sharpe ratio above two and remain profitable after transaction costs. Their profits can be explained by two option factors, while equity risk factors have no explanatory power. We find support for several economic channels at work, yet the option return predictability remains puzzling.

Options Trading and Stock Price Informativeness

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(4), 1516-1540 open access
We document the causal effects of single-name options trading on the absolute level of information content of prices (stock price informativeness) by exploiting the Penny Pilot Program as an exogenous shock to options trading volume. We find that options trading increases underlying stock price informativeness and information acquisition by both option and stock investors, consistent with the framework of Goldstein and Yang (2015). The findings are driven by firms for which options are more important sources of information and firms with more efficiently priced options. Options market introduction in a sample of 25 other economies also leads to higher price informativeness.

ESG Preference, Institutional Trading, and Stock Return Patterns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2023 58(5), 1843-1877 open access
Socially responsible (SR) institutions tend to focus more on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and less on quantitative signals of value. Consistent with this difference in focus, we find that SR institutions react less to quantitative mispricing signals. Our evidence suggests that the increased focus on ESG may have influenced stock return patterns. Specifically, abnormal returns associated with these mispricing signals are greater for stocks held more by SR institutions. The link between SR ownership and the efficacy of mispricing signals only emerges in recent years with the rise of ESG investing, and is significant only when there are arbitrage-related funding constraints.

Betting Against the Crowd: Option Trading and Market Risk Premium

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2026 open access
We study how equity option trading affects the market risk premium. We find that a measure of aggregate call order imbalance (ACIB), defined as the cross-sectional average of the difference between open-buy and open-sell volume, negatively forecasts future stock market returns significantly from days to months. Moreover, ACIB represents an option-based investor sentiment measure that accounts for excess option buying or selling, and is highly correlated with the stock investor sentiment. Our findings shed new insights on the distinctions for call and put option trading, index and equity option trading, and cross-sectional and time-series predictions.