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What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?

Journal of Accounting Research 2013 51(2), 225-266 open access
We decompose quantitative management earnings forecasts into macroeconomic and firm‐specific components to determine the extent to which voluntary disclosure provided by management has macroeconomic information content. We provide evidence that the forecasts of bellwether firms, which are defined as firms in which macroeconomic news explains the greatest amount of variation in the forecasts, provide timely information to the market about the macroeconomy when bundled with earnings announcements. Further, we show that bellwether firms provide timely information about both industry‐specific events and broader economic events. Finally, we document that the macroeconomic news in individual forecasts is more pronounced for bad news and point forecasts.

Corporate Loan Securitization and the Standardization of Financial Covenants

Journal of Accounting Research 2018 56(1), 45-83 open access
We examine whether syndicated loans securitized through collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have more standardized financial covenants. We proxy for the standardization of covenants using the textual similarity of their contractual definitions. We find that securitized loans are associated with higher covenant standardization than nonsecuritized institutional loans. In addition, we show that CLOs with more diverse or frequently rebalanced portfolios are more likely to purchase loans with standardized covenants, potentially because standardization alleviates information processing costs related to loan monitoring and screening. We also document that covenant standardization is associated with greater loan and CLO note rating agreement between credit rating agencies, further supporting the relation between lower information costs and covenant standardization. Overall, our study provides evidence that loan securitization is related to the design of standardized financial covenants.

Distribution channels of analyst research: new evidence

Review of Accounting Studies 2025 30(4), 3421-3463 open access
The channels through which analyst research data are distributed are complex. The I/B/E/S database is the dominant source for analyst earnings estimates for academics, but there are numerous other channels, some of which are cost prohibitive for many investors. We describe the distribution of analyst research and examine whether a high-cost alternative distribution channel, TR Research, is characterized by higher quality estimates than those available from I/B/E/S. We examine analyst forecast accuracy, bias, and informativeness and find that TR Research estimates are more accurate and less biased than estimates exclusively distributed via I/B/E/S. We further find that TR Research estimates are associated with greater market reaction and lower information asymmetry, consistent with the higher quality of these estimates. Our study highlights differences in brokerage and analyst incentives regarding research distribution and documents a specific setting where a subset of investors pays for access to superior analyst research.

IRS Attention

Journal of Accounting Research 2017 55(1), 79-114 open access
We study how public and private disclosure requirements interact to influence both tax regulator enforcement and firm disclosure. To capture IRS enforcement activities, we introduce a novel data set of IRS acquisition of firms’ public financial disclosures, which we label IRS attention. We examine the implementation of two new disclosure requirements that potentially alter IRS attention: FIN 48, which increased public tax disclosure requirements, and Schedule UTP, which increased private tax disclosure. We find that IRS attention increased following FIN 48 but subsequently decreased following Schedule UTP, consistent with public and private disclosure interacting to influence tax enforcement. We next examine how private tax disclosure requirements under Schedule UTP affected firms’ public disclosure responses. We find that, following Schedule UTP, firms significantly increased the quantity and altered the content of their tax-related disclosures, consistent with lower tax-related proprietary costs of disclosure. Our results suggest that changes in SEC disclosure requirements altered the IRS's behavior with regard to public information acquisition, and, relatedly, changes in IRS private disclosure requirements appear to change firms’ public disclosure behavior.