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Innovation and Top Income Inequality

Review of Economic Studies 2019 86(1), 1-45 open access
In this article, we use cross-state panel and cross-U.S. commuting-zone data to look at the relationship between innovation, top income inequality and social mobility. We find positive correlations between measures of innovation and top income inequality. We also show that the correlations between innovation and broad measures of inequality are not significant. Next, using instrumental variable analysis, we argue that these correlations at least partly reflect a causality from innovation to top income shares. Finally, we show that innovation, particularly by new entrants, is positively associated with social mobility, but less so in local areas with more intense lobbying activities

Liquidity, innovation, and endogenous growth

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 132(2), 519-541 open access
We build a model of endogenous, innovation-driven growth in which innovative firms have costly access to outside financing and hoard cash reserves to maintain financial flexibility. We show that financing frictions slow down Schumpeterian creative destruction by discouraging entry. As a result, financing frictions importantly affect the composition of growth, by reducing the contribution of entrants but spurring the contribution of incumbents. We investigate the net impact of these countervailing effects on the equilibrium growth rate and welfare

Aggregate Implications of Innovation Policy

Journal of Political Economy 2019 127(6), 2625-2683 open access
We examine the quantitative impact of policy-induced changes in firms’ innovative investment on growth in aggregate productivity and output in a model that nests several of the canonical models. We isolate two statistics, the impact elasticity of aggregate productivity growth with respect to aggregate innovative investment and the degree of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in research, that shape the model’s predicted dynamic response to a change in the innovation intensity of the economy. Given measures of these statistics, there is only modest scope for increasing aggregate productivity and output over a 20-year horizon with uniform innovation subsidies to firms’ investments in innovation of a reasonable magnitude, but the welfare gains may be substantial

Contingent Capital Trigger Effects: Evidence from Liability Management Exercises

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2019 8(2), 235-259 open access
This paper studies liability management exercises (LME) by banks, which have comparable regulatory capital effects than contingent capital triggers. LMEs are concentrated on low capitalization situations, both in the cross-section and in the time series and are frequently associated with equity issuances. These exercises prove effective at improving bank capitalization levels. The market reaction to LMEs is positive and mostly accrues to debt holders. These findings strengthen the case for innovative liabilities securities as a tool to improve bank resilience. Received February 8, 2019; editorial decision May 16, 2019 by Editor Andrew Ellul

Short-Termism and Capital Flows

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2019 8(1), 207-233 open access
From 2007 to 2016, S&P 500 firms distributed $7 trillion via buybacks and dividends, over 96% of their aggregate net income, prompting claims that “short-termism” is impairing firms’ ability to invest and innovate. We show that, accounting for both direct and indirect equity issuances, net shareholder payouts by all public firms during this period totaled only 41% of net income. And, during this decade, investment substantially increased while cash balances ballooned. In short, S&P 500 shareholder-payout figures cannot provide much basis for the notion that short-termism has been depriving public firms of needed capital. Received September 23, 2018; Editorial decision November 13, 2018; Editor Andrew Ellul

The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the U.S. Retail Sector

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2019 134(2), 715-783 open access
This article examines how product innovations led to inflation inequality in the United States from 2004 to 2015. Using scanner data from the retail sector, I find that annual inflation for retail products was 0.661 (std. err. 0.0535) percentage points higher for the bottom income quintile relative to the top income quintile. When including changes in product variety over time, this difference increases to 0.8846 (std. err. 0.0739) percentage points a year. In CEX-CPI data covering the full consumption basket, the annual inflation difference is 0.368 (std. err. 0.0502) percentage points. I investigate the following hypothesis: (i) the relative demand for products consumed by high-income households increased because of growth and rising inequality; (ii) in response, firms introduced more new products catering to such households; (iii) as a result, the prices of continuing products in these market segments fell due to increased competitive pressure. Using a shift-share research design, I find causal evidence that increasing relative demand leads to increasing product variety and lower inflation for continuing products. A calibration indicates that the hypothesized channel accounts for a large fraction (over 50%) of observed inflation inequality

Interrelation of Controls for Autonomous Motivation: A Field Study of Productivity Gains Through Pressure-Induced Process Innovation

The Accounting Review 2019 94(3), 345-371 open access
This field study investigates an empirical setting where the introduction of new formal results controls—stretch targets for productivity that are seemingly unachievable with current process efficiencies—is associated with high productivity gains over extended periods of time. Contrary to findings from the prior management accounting research, employees meet the targets by being creative and risk-taking in continuously innovating processes, despite the pressure induced by high target-level difficulty. Mobilizing self-determination theory, we argue that a specific interrelation of personnel and cultural control with results control supports internalization of the latter by employees. In this situation, employees perceive the high performance required by the results control assimilated into their own values, which facilitates the autonomous motivation necessary for their creativity. Our findings contribute to the literature by identifying the conditions, and discovering the mechanisms, that enhance the efficacy of stretch targets

Growth in the shadow of debt

Journal of Banking & Finance 2019 103, 98-112 open access
This paper revisits the relationship between debt and growth from a vantage point that considers the totality of private and public debt. We exploit quarter-long timing lags inherent in the response of borrowing to innovations in output to identify the effects of debt on growth in a panel vector autoregressive model. We verify that debt accumulation is negatively related to output growth, with a one standard deviation innovation in the former leading to a 0.2 percentage-point contraction in the latter. This result is robust to the inclusion of exogenous variables in the system, alternative measures of the endogenous variables, and varying temporal treatments. We also find variations depending on the type of debt accumulated, the specific subset of countries considered, and the channels along which debt expansion operates

An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 134(1), 165-191 open access
We develop a new empirical approach to term structure analysis that allows testing for time-varying risk premiums and arbitrage opportunities in models with both unobservable factors and factors identified as the innovations to observed macroeconomic variables. Factors can play double roles as both covariance-generating common shocks driving yields and determinants of market prices of risk in cross-sectional pricing. The evidence favors time-varying risk prices significantly related to the second Stock–Watson principal component of macroeconomic variables and to changes in the industrial production index. Our preferred specification includes these two observable and two unobservable factors, with the no-arbitrage condition imposed

Women's Liberation as a Financial Innovation

Journal of Finance 2019 74(6), 2915-2956 open access
In one of the greatest extensions of property rights in human history, common law countries began giving rights to married women in the 1850s. Before this “women's liberation,” the doctrine of coverture strongly incentivized parents of daughters to hold real estate, rather than financial assets such as money, stocks, or bonds. We exploit the staggered nature of coverture's demise across U.S. states to show that women's rights led to shifts in household portfolios, a positive shock to the supply of credit, and a reallocation of labor toward nonagriculture and capital‐intensive industries. Investor protection thus deepened financial markets, aiding industrialization.