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The Market Pricing of Other-Than-Temporary Impairments

The Accounting Review 2014 89(3), 811-838
When the fair value of an investment security falls below amortized cost and there is significant doubt that the firm can hold the security until the fair value recovers, an other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) is recognized in net income. Thus, an OTTI is a disclosure about the prospect of recovering an unrealized loss. Our findings suggest that investors priced banks' OTTI recognition during and after the financial crisis. Investors were unable to fully anticipate reported OTTIs, and priced OTTIs incrementally to reported unrealized gains/losses. After banks were required to bifurcate OTTIs, investors priced only the portion of OTTI recognized in earnings. Our results suggest that reporting unrealized losses in earnings via an OTTI changes how investors price the losses. The results inform recent standard-setting initiatives to expand disclosure about changes in fair value. JEL Classifications: M41; M42; M44. Data Availability: Data are available from sources identified in the paper.

Chiefs: Economic Development and Elite Control of Civil Society in Sierra Leone

Journal of Political Economy 2014 122(2), 319-368 open access
We study the effect of constraints on chiefs' power on economic outcomes, citizens' attitudes, and social capital. A paramount chief in Sierra Leone must come from a ruling family originally recognized by British colonial authorities. In chiefdoms with fewer ruling families, chiefs face less political competition, and development outcomes are significantly worse today. Variation in the security of property rights over land is a potential mechanism. Paradoxically, with fewer ruling families, the institutions of chiefs' authority are more highly respected, and measured social capital is higher. We argue that these results reflect the capture of civil society organizations by chiefs.

One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

American Economic Review 2014 104(1), 277-290 open access
Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

Efficient Entry in Competing Auctions

American Economic Review 2014 104(10), 3288-3296 open access
In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency of seller entry in a model of competing auctions in which we allow for both buyer and seller heterogeneity. This generalizes existing efficiency results in the competitive search literature by simultaneously allowing for nonrival (many-on-one) meetings and private information.

Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from the End of Rent Control in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Journal of Political Economy 2014 122(3), 661-717 open access
We measure the capitalization of housing market externalities into residential housing values by studying the unanticipated elimination of stringent rent controls in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in 1995. Pooling data on the universe of assessed values and transacted prices of Cambridge residential properties between 1988 and 2005, we find that rent decontrol generated substantial, robust price appreciation at decontrolled units and nearby never-controlled units, accounting for a quarter of the $7.8 billion in Cambridge residential property appreciation during this period. The majority of this contribution stems from induced appreciation of never-controlled properties. Residential investment explains only a small fraction of the total.

Declining Discount Rates

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 538-543 open access
We ask whether the US government should replace its current discounting practices with a declining discount rate schedule, as the United Kingdom and France have done, or continue to discount the future at a constant exponential rate. We present the theoretical basis for a declining discount rate (DDR) schedule, but focus on how, in practice, a DDR could be estimated for use by policy analysts. We discuss the empirical approaches in the literature and review how the United Kingdom and France estimated their DDR schedules. We conclude with advice on how the United States might proceed to consider modifying its current discounting practices.

Evolutionary Origins of the Endowment Effect: Evidence from Hunter-Gatherers

American Economic Review 2014 104(6), 1793-1805 open access
The endowment effect, the tendency to value possessions more than non-possessions, is a well-known departure from rational choice and has been replicated in numerous settings. We investigate the universality of the endowment effect, its evolutionary significance, and its dependence on environmental factors. We experimentally test for the endowment effect in an isolated and evolutionarily relevant population of hunter-gatherers, the Hadza Bushmen of Northern Tanzania. We find that Hadza living in isolated regions do not display the endowment effect, while Hadza living in a geographic region with increased exposure to modern society and markets do display the endowment effect.