Knowledge that Transforms

This study examines the long-term effects of student loans and grants in Chile through a regression discontinuity design. It finds that university loans significantly boost degree completion, especially among women and low-income students, with marginal positive effects on employment and earnings for women. Vocational loans benefit only those ineligible for university loans. Conversely, grants, alongside loans, do not affect education or labor market outcomes. The limited impact of the tuition reductions induced by grants, combined with the substantial gains for low-income students, highlights the presence of credit constraints.

This paper evaluates self-employment assistance (SEA) programs, which are government initiatives extending the unemployment insurance system to support unemployment to self-employment transitions. Using a general equilibrium model of the US labor market, we show that these programs have important labor market mobility effects and increase the self-employment rate. They also significantly impact the composition and performance outcomes of self-employment: while lump-sum subsidies select low-skilled individuals, SEA programs contingent on previously employed earnings select skilled and wealthier individuals. At the aggregate level, the latter programs mainly reallocate individuals from employment to self-employment, leaving the unemployment rate largely unaffected.

Weak local labor market conditions may change the trajectories of young adults who expected to find work. Well-documented responses include increasing educational investments, moving to more prosperous labor markets, or reducing labor force attachment. Military enlistment is a channel of potential adjustment that has received less study. Using data on Army recruits, we demonstrate a significant local response in enlistment to mass layoffs, characterized by increased labor supply to the military rather than increased local military recruiting. Our work documents the significance of military employment as an important arm of adjustment to local labor market shocks.

I study the role of social networks in the propagation of economic shocks across space. Combining comprehensive data on US online friendships with extraction activity during the fracking boom, I show that exogenous changes in economic conditions in one area affect outcomes in socially proximate places, regardless of how far apart they are geographically. Social exposure to fracking generates a wage spillover amounting to one-third of every dollar of energy produced in a county’s social network. This spillover decays slowly in space and is associated with a large mobility response. Diffusion mainly stems from the commuting of transient fracking workers.