Knowledge that Transforms

or vice versa will inevitably yield incomplete if not erroneous results. SUMMARY THE PRESENT investigation is a part of a study of the stock market which is motivated by three basic considerations: (1) Existing demand theory is inadequate for analyzing the problem of speculative prices and thus incapable of providing a valid prediction theory for this type of price mechanism. (2) The volume of sales in a commodity market has an economic significance in its own right and thus deserves much more attention by economists than it has received so far. (3) Prices and volumes of sales in the stock market arejoint products of a single market mechanism, and any model that attempts to isolate prices from volumes or vice versa will inevitably yield incomplete if not erroneous results. While the theoretical model and its implications will be presented elsewhere, the empirical results reported here serve as a basis for the proposed theory. Among the significant results so far found are: (1) A small volume is usually accompanied by a fall in price. (2) A large volume is usually accompanied by a rise in price. (3) A large increase in volume is usually accompanied by either a large rise in price or a large fall in price. (4) A large volume is usually followed by a rise in price. (5) If the volume has been decreasing consecutively for a period of five trading days, then there will be a tendency for the price to fall over the next four trading days.

Abstract : A model of a pure exchange economy is investigated without the usual assumption of convex preference sets for the participating traders. The concept of core, taken from the theory of games, is applied to show that if there are sufficiently many participants, the economy as a whole will possess a solution that is sociologically stable--i.e., that cannot profitably be upset by any coalition of traders.

Abstract : It is well known, and easy to establish, that there exist markets that do not have competitive equilibria, provided the traders do not have convex preferences--that is, that the set of commodity bundles preferred or indifferent to a given bundle is not always convex. It is proved, nevertheless, that in a market consisting of a continuum of traders, each one individually insignificant, there is always a competitive equilibrium, even when the preferences are not convex. (Author)

In this paper we consider the specification and estimation of the Cobb-Douglas production function model.After reviewing the "traditional" specifying assumptions for the model which are based on deterministic profit maximization, we develop a model in which profits are stochastic and in which maximization of the mathematical expectation of profits is posited."Sampling theory" and Bayesian estimation techniques for this model are presented.1. INTRODUCTION IN THIS PAPER we take up the problem of specifying and estimating a model of a profit maximizing firm operating with a Cobb-Douglas production function.Our model differs from the traditional production model considered in the literature, in that we assume that: (a) the production process is neither instantaneous nor deterministic; and (b) entrepreneurs are aware of the stochastic nature of production in their profit maximizing endeavors.This fundamental conceptual difference in our approach leads us to a new model with properties different from that of the traditional model.2Also we develop both sampling theory and Bayesian estimation procedures for the new model.The order of presentation is as follows.In Section 2 we review the traditional model, and then go on in Section 3 to formulate the new model.In Section 4, sampling theory estimation procedures are developed for the new model.In contrast with the traditional model, it is found that classical least squares provides consistent estimators of the parameters of the Cobb-Douglas production function.With a normality assumption, these are also unbiased and maximum likelihood estimators.Finally, in Section 5, a Bayesian analysis of the new model is presented.2. REVIEW OF THE TRADITIONAL MODEL According to economic theory, output, inputs, and profit of a firm are determined by the production function, the definition of profit, and the conditions of profit maximization.If the production function is of the Cobb-Douglas type with two