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Nations and States: Mergers and Acquisitions; Dissolutions and Divorce
Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment
Efficient Rules in Highway Safety and Sports Activity
Welfare and Collusion: Reply
Welfare and Collusion: Reply [Information, Entry, and Welfare: The Case for Collusion]
Information, Entry, and Welfare: The Case for Collusion
Lasting or Latent Scars? Swedish Evidence on the Long‐Term Effects of Job Displacement
Recently improved Swedish register data have made it possible to remedy many weaknesses of previous research on displaced workers. Using linked employer‐employee data, we identify all workers displaced in 1987, due to an establishment closure, and follow them over both a predisplacement period of 4 years and a postdisplacement period stretching until 1999. We find that the displaced workers suffer both earnings losses and worsened labor‐market position not only during a transitory period of adjustment but also in the longer run. These longer‐run effects seem to be driven by an increased sensitivity to subsequent macroeconomic shocks.
The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency
The Black-Scholes option pricing model, as generalized for dividend payments by Merton, is used to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. These variances are found to be better predictors of future stock return variances than those obtained from historic stock price data. A trading strategy is developed that exploits the informational content of the implied variances. The trading strategy, contrary to the efficient market hypothesis, produces abnormally high returns.
The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects
[This article develops a model of the upstairs market where order size, beliefs, and prices are determined endogenously. We test the model's predictions using unique data for 5,625 equity trades during the period 1985 to 1992 that are known to be upstairs transactions and are identified as either buyer or seller initiated. We find that price movements prior to the trade date are significantly positively related to trade size, consistent with information leakage as the block is "shopped" upstairs. Further, the temporary price impact or liquidity effect is a concave function of order size, which may result from upstairs intermediation.]