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Annual Survey of Business Cycle Theory: Investment and Saving in Business Cycle Theory
Do investment banks compete in IPOs?: the advent of the “7% plus contract”
The large number of initial public offerings (IPOs) with a 7% spread suggests either that investment bankers collude to profit from 7% IPOs or that the 7% contract is an efficient innovation that better suits the IPO. My tests do not support the collusion theory. Low concentration and ease of entry characterize the IPO market. Moreover, the 7% spread is not abnormally profitable, nor has its use been diminished by public awareness of collusion allegations. In support of the efficient contract theory, banks compete in pricing 7% IPOs on the basis of reputation, placement service, and underpricing.
The Trend of Government Activity in the United States Since 1900
Two Discussions of the Employment Act of 1946 and Its Early Operation
Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles
On the information role of stock recommendation revisions
We examine the information transmission role of stock recommendation revisions by sell-side security analysts. Revisions are associated with economically insignificant mean price reactions and often piggyback on recent news, events, long-term momentum, and short-run contrarian return predictors, typically downgrading after bad news and upgrading after good news. However, the revisions are usually information-free for investors. The findings go against the long-standing view that recommendations are an important means by which analysts assimilate information into stock prices. They disagree with the view of policymakers that analysts’ stock picks materially impact stock prices.
The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden
Jurisdictions across the United States have adopted “ban the box” (BTB) policies preventing employers from asking about job applicants’ criminal records until late in the hiring process. Their goal is to improve employment outcomes for those with criminal records, with a secondary goal of reducing racial disparities in employment. However, removing criminal history information could increase statistical discrimination against demographic groups that include more ex-offenders. We use variation in the timing of BTB policies to test BTB’s effects on employment. We find that BTB policies decrease the probability of employment by 3.4 percentage points (5.1%) for young, low-skilled black men.