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Best-performing US mutual fund families from 1993 to 2008: Evidence from a novel two-stage DEA model for efficiency decomposition

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(12), 3302-3317
When analyzing relative performance, especially at the institutional level, the traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models do not recognize vastly different and important activities as separate functions and therefore cannot identify which function may be the main source of inefficiency. We propose a novel two-stage DEA model that decomposes the overall efficiency of a decision-making unit into two components and demonstrate its applicability by assessing the relative performance of 66 large mutual fund families in the US over the period 1993–2008. By decomposing the overall efficiency into operational management efficiency and portfolio management efficiency components, we reveal the best performers, the families that deteriorated in performance, and those that improved in their performance over the sample period. We also make frontier projections for poorly performing mutual fund families and highlight how the portfolio managers have managed their funds relative to the others during financial crisis periods.

International Robust Disagreement

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 152-155 open access
We characterize the equilibrium of a two-country, two-good economy in which agents have opposite preference bias toward one of the two consumption goods and fear model misspecification. We document that disagreement about endowments' growth prospects is a persistent endogenous outcome of this class of economies.

Human Capital Investment and the Gender Division of Labor in a Brawn-Based Economy

American Economic Review 2012 102(7), 3531-3560
We use a model of human capital investment and activity choice to explain facts describing gender differentials in the levels and returns to human capital investments. These include the higher return to and level of schooling, the small effect of healthiness on wages, and the large effect of healthiness on schooling for females relative to males. The model incorporates gender differences in the level and responsiveness of brawn to nutrition in a Roy-economy setting in which activities reward skill and brawn differentially. Empirical evidence from rural Bangladesh provides support for the model and the importance of the distribution of brawn.

Did the Housing Price Bubble Clobber Local Labor Market Job and Worker Flows When It Burst?

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 589-593
We use the Census Bureau's Quarterly Workforce Indicators and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Indices to study the effects of the housing price bubble on local labor markets. We show that the 35 MSAs in the top decile of the house price boom were most severely impacted. Their stable job employment fell much more than the national average. Their real wage rates did not fall as fast as the national average. Accessions fell much faster than average while separations were constant. Job creations fell substantially while destructions rose slightly.

Negative Special Items and Future Earnings: Expense Transfer or Real Improvements?

The Accounting Review 2012 87(4), 1165-1195
Burgstahler et al. (2002) investigate the implications of special items for future earnings and report that firms use negative special items to accelerate the recognition of future expenses into the current period. That is, negative special items serve as an “inter-period transfer” device. We extend their analysis and find that earnings increase in post-special item quarters beyond the four quarters considered in Burgstahler et al. (2002). In particular, we find that future earnings increase over the subsequent 16 quarters by more than 130 percent of the reported negative special item. The earnings increases are greater for restructuring charges than for asset write-downs or goodwill impairment charges. Such patterns suggest that negative special items also signal real future performance improvements (i.e., performance improvement hypothesis) in addition to inter-period expense transfer (i.e., inter-period transfer hypothesis). Moreover, the real improvement effect appears to be driven by restructuring charges, the most prevalent type of special item.

An Examination of the Cost of Capital Implications of FIN 46

The Accounting Review 2012 87(4), 1105-1134
This study examines whether the adoption in 2003 of FASB Interpretation No. 46/R (FIN 46), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities—An Interpretation of ARB No. 51, changed the cost of capital for affected firms. Using comparative analysis on a broad sample of 11,719 firm-quarter observations for 1,389 firms during the period 1998 through 2005, we find evidence that FIN 46 significantly increased the cost of equity capital for firms with affected variable interest entities (VIEs), an increase of approximately 50 basis points relative to firms reporting no material effect from the standard. Further, firms consolidating these formerly off-balance sheet structures experienced the largest increase. Taken together, these results suggest that FIN 46 reduced the opportunity for firms to use off-balance sheet structures to artificially reduce their cost of capital, a matter of regulatory concern. Data Availability: All data are available from public sources.

Using Online Video to Announce a Restatement: Influences on Investment Decisions and the Mediating Role of Trust

The Accounting Review 2012 87(2), 513-535 open access
Press releases accompanying earnings restatements attempt to minimize negative reactions by explaining the reasons for the restatement. Although text-based press releases have been the norm for years, firms have recently begun using online video for such announcements. We examine the implications of doing so, and find that when a CEO accepts responsibility by making an internal attribution for a restatement, investors viewing the announcement online via video recommend larger investments in the firm than do investors viewing the announcement online via text. In contrast, when the CEO denies responsibility by making an external attribution for the restatement, investors viewing the announcement online via video recommend smaller investments in the firm than do investors viewing the announcement online via text. Our results also reveal that investor trust mediates the effect of disclosure venue and attribution on investment recommendations. These findings are important given the economic significance and trust-damaging implications of restatements, as well as the increased use of online video to make important announcements. Data Availability: Contact the authors for data and video.

Sinking, Swimming, or Learning to Swim in Medicare Part D

American Economic Review 2012 102(6), 2639-2673
Under Medicare Part D, senior citizens choose prescription drug insurance offered by numerous private insurers. We examine nonpoor enrollees' actions in 2006 and 2007 using panel data. Our sample reduced overspending by $298 on average, with gains by 81 percent of them. The greatest improvements were by those who overspent most in 2006 and by those who switched plans. Decisions to switch depended on individuals' overspending in 2006 and on individual-specific effects of changes in their current plans. The oldest consumers and those initiating medications for Alzheimer's disease improved by more than average, suggesting that real-world institutions help overcome cognitive limitations.

Understanding Bubbly Episodes

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 95-100 open access
Over the last two decades US aggregate wealth has fluctuated substantially. Against the backdrop of the Great Recession, the effects of these boom-and-bust cycles have come to dominate academic and policy discussions. How can we explain these fluctuations in wealth? Why are these fluctuations associated with changes in consumption, investment and output? In this note, we argue that answers to these questions entail the addition of two ingredients to existent macroeconomic models: rational bubbles and financial frictions. We explain why each of these building blocks is crucial to understand recent events and how they can be seamlessly integrated in standard models.

Did Subjectivity Play a Role in CDO Credit Ratings?

Journal of Finance 2012 67(4), 1293-1328
Analyzing 916 collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), we find that a top credit rating agency frequently made positive adjustments beyond its main model that amounted to increasingly larger AAA tranche sizes. These adjustments are difficult to explain by likely determinants, but exhibit a clear pattern: CDOs with smaller model-implied AAA sizes receive larger adjustments. CDOs with larger adjustments experience more severe subsequent downgrading. Additionally, prior to April 2007, 91.2% of AAA-rated CDOs only comply with the credit rating agency's own AA default rate standard. Accounting for adjustments and the criterion deviation indicates that on average AAA tranches were structured to BBB support levels.