Knowledge that Transforms

Methods are proposed to build exact tests and confidence sets in the linear first-order autoregressive distributed lag model with i.i.d. disturbances. For general linear hypotheses on the regression coefficients, inference procedures are obtained which have known level. The tests proposed are either similar (i.e., they have constant rejection probability for all data generating processes consistent with the null hypothesis) or use bounds which are free of nuisance parameters. Correspondingly the confidence sets are either similar with known size (i.e., they have constant coverage probability) or conservative. We also develop exact tests and confidence sets for various nonlinear transformations of model parameters, such as long-run multipliers and mean lags. The practical usefulness of these exact methods, which are also asymptotically valid under weak regularity conditions, is illustrated by some power comparisons and with applications to a dynamic trend model of money velocity and a model of money demand.

The neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals, yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members. This paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member. We make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts. All we assume is that however decisions are made, outcomes are efficient. We refer to this as the collective setting. We show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the Slutsky matrix. We also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made. We apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from Canada. The tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two-person households but not for one-person households. We also show that income pooling is rejected for two-person households. We then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data. None of the collective setting restrictions are rejected. We conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior.

This paper introduces an alternative estimator for the linear censored quantile regression model. The estimator also applies to cases where the censoring point is unknown. Since the objective function is globally convex and the estimator is a solution to a linear programming problem, a global minimizer is obtained in a finite number of simplex iterations. The estimator has a square root of n-convergence rate and is asymptotically normal. A Monte Carlo study performed shows that the suggested estimator has very desirable small sample properties.

Some new tools for analyzing spurious regressions are presented. The theory utilizes the general representation of a stochastic process in terms of an orthonormal system and provides an extension of the Weierstrass theorem to include the approximation of continuous functions and stochastic processes by Wiener processes. The theory is applied to two classic examples of spurious regressions: regressions of stochastic trends on time polynomials and regressions among independent random walks. It is shown that such regressions reproduce in part and in whole the underlying orthonormal representations.

In an ultimatum game experiment, financial incentives were varied by a factor of twenty-five. Consistent with prior results, changes in stakes had only a small effect on play for inexperienced players. However, rejections were less frequent the higher the stakes and proposals in the high stakes declined slowly as proposers gained experience. The lower rejection frequency when stakes were higher can be explained by the added power of multiple observations per subject in this experiment. A model of learning suggests that the lower rejection frequency is the reason proposers in higher stakes learn to make lower offers.

This study establishes two main results in a dynamic general equilibrium model. The first is to demonstrate the dual Liapounov stability of a von Neumann facet without the restrictive assumptions on the structure of underlying technologies adopted commonly in the optimal growth literature. The second is to demonstrate that a temporary change in fiscal policy has almost no effect on present and future consumption. While such a result has been discussed in the context of permanent income hypothesis, in this study it is proved in the dynamic general equilibrium framework under a set of basic assumptions of general equilibrium theory.

The authors consider the problem of making asymptotically valid inference on structural parameters in instrumental variables regression with weak instruments. Using local-to-zero asymptotics, they derive the asymptotic distributions of likelihood ratio (LR) and Lagrange multiplier (LM) type statistics for testing simple hypotheses on structural parameters based on maximum likelihood and generalized methods of moments estimation methods. In contrast to the nonstandard limiting behavior of Wald statistics, the limiting distributions of certain LR and LM statistics are bounded by a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom given by the number of instruments.

People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines markets in which price‐taking traders, a strategic‐trading insider, and risk‐averse marketmakers are overconfident. Overconfidence increases expected trading volume, increases market depth, and decreases the expected utility of overconfident traders. Its effect on volatility and price quality depend on who is overconfident. Overconfident traders can cause markets to underreact to the information of rational traders. Markets also underreact to abstract, statistical, and highly relevant information, and they overreact to salient, anecdotal, and less relevant information.

International equity markets exhibit medium‐term return continuation. Between 1980 and 1995 an internationally diversified portfolio of past medium‐term Winners outperforms a portfolio of medium‐term Losers after correcting for risk by more than 1 percent per month. Return continuation is present in all twelve sample countries and lasts on average for about one year. Return continuation is negatively related to firm size, but is not limited to small firms. The international momentum returns are correlated with those of the United States which suggests that exposure to a common factor may drive the profitability of momentum strategies.

Using a large database of private firms in Italy, we analyze the determinants of initial public offerings (IPOs) by comparing the ex ante and ex post characteristics of IPOs with those of private firms. The likelihood of an IPO is increasing in the company's size and the industry's market‐to‐book ratio. Companies appear to go public not to finance future investments and growth, but to rebalance their accounts after high investment and growth. IPOs are also followed by lower cost of credit and increased turnover in control.