Knowledge that Transforms

This study reports on efforts use the Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey estimate the effect that manpower training programs have had on participants' earnings. Estimation techniques are developed control for nonrandom selection into the program based on individual unobservables which are either constant and/or changing over time, as well as non-random selection because of creaming by program administrators. The study finds that, in general, fixed effects estimators are sufficient eliminate the bias created by non-random selection. While women appear benefit substantially from manpower training programs, no significant earnings effects were found for men participants. G OVERNMENTAL involvement in postschooling employment and training programs for disadvantaged and hard employ workers began with the passage of the Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962. Although funding levels and objectives have changed frequently, training programs of one type or another have been an increasingly significant factor in the operation of the U.S. economy since that time. For almost a decade the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973 (CETA) had major responsibility for provision of training, serving over four million participants during 1979.1 The purpose of training programs, as defined by CETA, was to provide training and employment opportunities for economically disadvantaged, unemployed, or underemployed persons which will result in an increase in their earned income.2 Despite nearly a decade of massive expenditures on training under CETA, surprisingly little is known about the program's effectiveness in achieving its goal of human resources development. This study reports on efforts use the recently available Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey (CLMS) estimate the effect that CETA has had on participants' post-training earnings.3 The plan of the paper is as follows. Section I develops a range of estimation techniques, given alternative assumptions about the structure of the error term. A series of nested hypotheses tests is suggested as a method for choosing which estimation technique(s) fulfills the necessary assumptions for unbiased estimation of training effects. Section II describes the data that are available from the CLMS. The framework developed in section I is then used test which of four available comparison groups are appropriate for unbiased estimation and presents the empirical results and their limitations. Section III summarizes the findings of

A general solution is given to the problem: with little computation, construct a more disaggregated input-output model from an available model, using information about some activities that were aggregated when the available model was built. The solution is exact and explicit. When only partial information is available, the exact solution guides its user to inexpensive and precise sensitivity analysis. Detailed consideration is accorded to the solution of the most frequently occurring problem: the disaggregation of one sector into two. 14 references.

A bstract-This paper uses state space methods to examine the extent to which forecast errors in inventory investment, especially at turning points, may be due to measurement error. It is found that while quarterly observations on both inventory and sales are subject to substantial revision, these revisions have on average only a modest impact on the accuracy of inventory investment forecasts. However, there is evidence that the variance of inventory measurement error increases with the rate of change of inventory stocks. This implies that substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, especially at turning points, are potentially available if the preliminary and revised data are used optimally.

Robert A. Pollak, Robin C. Sickles, Terence J. Wales, The CES-Translog: Specification and Estimation of a New Cost Function, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 4 (Nov., 1984), pp. 602-607

Using four-digit manufacturing data from 1975 on nominal and effective tariff protection and nontariff barriers to trade (NTBs), we estimate the structural determinants of protection imposed by the United States, Japan, the European Community and Canada in the Post-Kennedy Round period. We provide evidence that NTBs were used to undercut Kennedy Round liberalization in general and to supplement tariff protection of consumer goods, agricultural manufactures and textiles. Industrialized country NTBs discriminate against manufactured exports from developing countries. We explain that discrimination and the pervasive use of NTBs in the EC in terms of our regulatory theory of trade.

This paper demonstrates that a linear logit model, with appropriate constraints, can be used to specify a system of cost share equations that satisfy neoclassical economic conditions. Unlike many other flexible functional forms, the logistic function is particularly well suited for incorporating dynamic adjustment mechanisms. The empirical results suggest that the use of static models overstates short-run own-price elasticities and understates the corresponding long-run price effects.

Sheldon Danziger, Jacques van der Gaag, Michael K. Taussig, Eugene Smolensky, The Direct Measurement of Welfare Levels: How Much Does it Cost to Make Ends Meet?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 3 (Aug., 1984), pp. 500-505

Scott E. Atkinson, Robert Halvorsen, A New Hedonic Technique for Estimating Attribute Demand: An Application to the Demand for Automobile Fuel Efficiency, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 3 (Aug., 1984), pp. 417-426