Knowledge that Transforms

The roughly 9.5 percent of all U.S. families that are without some type of transaction account (unbanked) are disproportionately represented by minorities.The unbanked often must rely on alternative ways to carry out basic financial transactions such as cashing payroll checks and paying bills.This study analyzes unique survey data and finds that a consumer's decision to patronize check-cashing businesses is jointly made with the decision to be unbanked.For the unbanked, these businesses are an important source for financial services.Attributes that contribute to these decisions, however, vary for each racial/ethnic group.Latent preference effects are also observed to influence this joint decision for Blacks and Hispanics.These findings may explain in part why the provisions of the Debt Collection Improvement Act (DCIA) of 1996 have not been more successful in bringing unbanked federal benefits recipients into the financial mainstream.Consumer participation in mainstream financial markets can improve their ability to build assets and create wealth, protect them from theft and discriminatory, predatory or unsavory lending practices, and may promote economic stability and vitality in the communities where they reside.By more fully understanding a consumer's financial decisions, policies can be better directed to improve the effectiveness of legislation such as the DCIA of 1996 in encouraging mainstream financial market participation. The Importance of Check-Cashing Businesses to the Unbanked:Racial/Ethnic Differences

Many consider improved dispute settlement one of the leading achievements of the WTO. This paper tests the implication of a game-theoretic approach that predicts that more efficient litigation devices increase the frequency and number of trade disputes. We propose an empirical event history analysis of GATT, WTO, and USTR Section 301 cases, identify the demographic patterns for births and lifespans of U.S. disputes, and test the hypothesis of a WTO structural break. The evidence supports the view that the WTO increased the incidence of U.S. trade disputes, while shortening their lifespan.

We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for counties east of the 100th meridian, the historic boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a non-linear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfect competition, and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affect the income distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross substitutes (gross complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factor or the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypotheses, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a micro foundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities, and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns. Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders. We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature.

The maturity date of a mortgage loan marks the end of monthly mortgage payments for homeowners. In the period after the last payment, homeowners experience an increase in their disposable income. Our study interprets this event as an anticipated increase in income, and tests whether households smooth consumption over the transition period as predicted by the rational-expectation life-cycle–permanent-income hypothesis. We find households do not alter nondurable-goods consumption in the period following the last mortgage payment. Instead, they increase both financial savings and savings in durable goods such as house furnishings and entertainment equipment in the year of the last mortgage payment.

The determination of how to distinguish between unemployment and nonparticipation is important and controversial. The conventional approach employs a priori reasoning together with self-reported current behavior. This paper employs an evidence-based classification of labor force status using information about the consequences of the behavior of the nonemployed. We find that marginal attachment—defined as desiring work, although not searching—is a distinct labor market state, lying between those who do not desire work and the unemployed. Furthermore, important heterogeneities exist within these nonemployment states. Two subsets of nonparticipants—both engaged in waiting—display behavior similar to the unemployed.

An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Yp based on certain characteristics Xp = (Xp1, …, Xpm), and on a database consisting of Xi1, … Xim, Yi) for i = 1, …, n. A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to generate an assessment of Y is similarity-weighted averaging. It suggests that the predicted value of Y, Ȳps, be the weighted average of all previously observed values Yi, where the weight of Yi for every i = 1, …, n, is the similarity between the vector Xp1, …, Xpm, associated with Yp, and the previously observed vector, Xi1, …, Xim. We axiomatize this rule. We assume that, given every database, a predictor has a ranking over possible values, and we show that certain reasonable conditions on these rankings imply that they are determined by the proximity to a similarity-weighted average for a certain similarity function. The axiomatization does not suggest a particular similarity function, or even a particular form of this function. We therefore proceed to suggest that the similarity function be estimated from past observations.We develop tools of statistical inference for parametric estimation of the similarity function, for the case of a continuous as well as a discrete variable. Finally, we discuss the relationship of the proposed method to other methods of estimation and prediction.

This study examines data drawn from the game show Friend or Foe? which is similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma tale: partnerships are endogenously determined, and players work together to earn money, after which they play a one-shot prisoner's dilemma game over large stakes: varying from $200 to (potentially) more than $22,000. The data reveal several interesting insights; perhaps most provocatively, they suggest that even though the game is played in front of an audience of millions of viewers, some of the evidence is consistent with a model of discrimination. The observed patterns of social discrimination are unanticipated, however.

Previous experimental research has shown that people's decisions can be influenced by options they have encountered in the past. This paper uses PSID data to study this phenomenon in the field, by observing how long people commute after moving between cities. It is found, as predicted, that (i) people choose longer commutes in a city they have just moved to, the longer the average commute was in the city they came from, and (ii) when they move again within the new city, they revise their commute length, countering the effect their origin city had on their initial decision.