Knowledge that Transforms

In this paper we examine the Henriksson-Merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice. The paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns. We show that the Henriksson-Merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency. Both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services.

Investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially. For example, the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information. Traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project. This paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments. We determine the effects of time to build, opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision. For reasonable parameter values, we show how a simple NPV rule can lead to gross errors.

This study tests hypotheses about the valuation of leasing contracts. We examine the determinants of the yields of a relatively large, reasonably heterogeneous, and nationally representative sample of financial leases. We find lease yields to be significantly related to treasury bond yields and our proxies for the systematic risk of the leased asset's residual value and the transaction and information costs associated with the lease. There is also some evidence of a relationship between lease yields and the default-risk of the lessee.

This paper tests an information-signaling hypothesis as a potential explanation for corporate convertible bond call policies and for the negative share price reaction to the announcement of the calls. We test this hypothesis by trying to ascertain whether the information signaled is realized. Our results show an unexpected decline in the firm's performance subsequent to the call. We also find significant negative cumulative returns during a sixty-month period following the calls.

Antitakeover amendments (shark repellents) restrict the transfer of corporate control. On average, the public announcement of antitakeover amendments by 600 firms in the period 1979–1985 has an insignificant effect on the value of announcing firms' shares. However, different types of amendments have varying effects. Non-fair-price amendments have an average significant negative effect of 2.95% on share prices, while fair-price amendments have an insignificant effect. The more harmful amendments have larger insider holdings and lower institutional holdings, suggesting a partial explanation of why shareholders approve these amendments.

Fama's evidence that the term premium on Treasury securities is not monotonically increasing is found to depend entirely on the behavior of bid-asked mean returns on 9- and 10-month bills, and only during the subperiod 8/64–12/72. When transactions costs, as reflected in the bid-asked spread, are taken into account, there is found to be no way to exploit this non-monotonicity. The anomalous behavior of the quotations is attributed to the Treasury's auctions of 9-month bills during the period 9/66–10/72. The hypothesis that the term premium is a monotonically increasing function of maturity remains unrefuted.

This paper examines possible motives for and consequences of voluntary corporate liquidations. Specifically, the procedural and tax differences between voluntary liquidations and other control-changing transaction devices are analyzed. An empirical investigation of successful liquidations shows that the announcement of liquidation reduces the risk of liquidating shares, that the shareholders receive substantial gains from successful liquidations, and that the average gains to the acquiring shareholders are not significantly different from zero. These findings suggest that the liquidating firms' assets have been underutilized before liquidation and that voluntary liquidations lead to higher-valued reallocations of corporate resources.

Over the past 55 years returns on stock market indexes have on average been higher during the first half-month of calendar quarters 2 through 4 than at other times. Coincidentally, aggregate corporate earnings news arriving at the market during these half-month periods tends to be good, whereas earnings reports arriving later are more likely to convey bad news. In addition firms tend to publish bad-news earnings reports on Mondays, coincident with negative Monday effects in stock returns. The coincidence of earnings news arrival and market seasonalities leads to conjectures about informational reasons for observed seasonalities.

This paper examines the relation between stock returns and stock market volatility. We find evidence that the expected market risk premium (the expected return on a stock portfolio minus the Treasury bill yield) is positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns. There is also evidence that unexpected stock market returns are negatively related to the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. This negative relation provides indirect evidence of a positive relation between expected risk premiums and volatility.

This paper investigates the effect of trade size on security prices. We show that trade size introduces an adverse selection problem into security trading because, given that they wish to trade, informed traders perfer to trade larger amounts at any given price. As a result, market makers' pricing strategies must also depend on trade size, with large trades being made at less favorable prices. Our model provides one explanation for the price effect of block trades and demonstrates that both the size and the sequence of trades matter in determining the price-trade size relationship.