Knowledge that Transforms

Beaver, Lambert and Morse (1980) suggest that prices may be useful in forecasting future earnings. We explore the information content of prices with respect to earnings by focusing on firm size and its relation to the predictive accuracy of price-based earnings forecasts. Firm size proxies for the amount of information and for the number of traders and professional analysts processing the available information about an enterprise. Our empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that price-based earnings will outperform univariate time series forecasts by a greater margin for larger firms than for smaller firms.

This paper examines the effect of accounting procedure changes on cash salary and bonus compensation to CEOs. We estimate whether there is an adjustment to the statistical relation between compensation and corporate earnings following changes that lower earnings (FIFO to LIFO inventory valuation) and that raise earnings (accelerated to straight-line depreciation). The results indicate that (1) subsequent to these changes salary and bonus payments are based on reported earnings, rather than earnings under the original accounting method, and (2) the potential compensation effect of the changes is small compared to the effect of economy- or industry-wide changes in compensation.

This paper provides evidence of security analyst (SA) superiority relative to univariate time-series (TS) models in predicting firms' quarterly earnings numbers and shows that SA forecast superiority in our sample is attributable to: (1) better utilization of information existing on the date that TS model forecasts can be initiated, a contemporaneous advantage; and (2) use of information acquired between the date of initiation of TS model forecasts and the date when SA forecasts are published, a timing advantage.

The question of whether the design of the corporate executive pay package reflects an attempt to reduce agency costs between shareholders and managers is addressed. The components of senior executive pay are found to vary systematically across firms in a manner that cannot easily be explained by tax effects, and which would indicate that individual elements of pay are aimed at controlling for limited horizon and risk exposure problems. Managerial decisions and the structure of managerial pay therefore appear to be interrelated.

This paper investigates the extent of intra-industry information transfers associated with the half-yearly earnings announcements of a sample of Australian firms. The ‘omitted factor’ interpretation of Foster's (1981) results is examined using a recursive systems specification of the return generating process to model extra-market return covariation in cross-section. Although some aspects of the results do appear sensitive to the alternative methodologies, the overall conclusion is consistent with Foster (1981) and supports the existence of intra-industry information transfers associated with firms' earnings releases.

Several hypotheses concerning pension funding strategy are tested in a cross-sectional regression model on a sample of 255 firms. Results are consistent with the following explanations: (1) finance incentives (tax benefits and financial slack) for high-level funding, (2) labor incentives for low-level funding, and (3) financial statement incentives relating to political costs for high-level funding and debt contracting costs for low-level funding. Pension funding strategy appears to be complex, involving tradeoffs between funding incentives. The nature of these interactions and tradeoffs remains to be clarified through future research.

The differential information hypothesis advanced by Atiase (1980) states that information production and dissemination by private parties for the purpose of identifying mispriced securities is an increasing function of firm size. This study examines two corollaries of that hypothesis. First, security prices of large firms anticipate accounting earnings earlier than security prices of small firms. Second, for a given level of ‘unexpected’ earnings, the cumulative abnormal returns of small firms exceed those of large firms. The results are generally consistent with Atiase's hypothesis.

Beaver, Lambert and Morse (1980) employ a regression of percentage change in prices on percentage change in earnings in which data are grouped by the dependent variable. Reverse regression offers a more intuitive and direct way to assess the information content of security prices, the objective of Beaver et al. While grouping is asymptotically equivalent, reverse regression is a more efficient way of examining the incremental explanatory power of lagged values of percentage change in price with respect to accounting earnings.

Robert B. Thompson II, Chris Olsen, J. Richard Dietrich, Attributes of News about Firms: An Analysis of Firm-Specific News Reported in the Wall Street Journal Index, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 25, No. 2 (Autumn, 1987), pp. 245-274

Lawrence D. Brown, Gordon D. Richardson, Steven J. Schwager, An Information Interpretation of Financial Analyst Superiority in Forecasting Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Spring, 1987), pp. 49-67