Models which represent long-term interest rates as long averages of expected short-term interest rates imply, because of the smoothing implicit in the averaging, that long rates should not be too volatile. The volatility of actual long-term interest rates, as measured by the variance of short-term holding yields on long-term bonds, appears to exceed limits imposed by the models. Such excess volatility implies a kind of forecastability for long rates. Long rates show a slight tendency to fall when they are high relative to short rates rather than rise as predicted by expectations models.
[This paper discusses a simulation procedure where innovations from time-series processes are used in conducting simulation experiments with macroeconometric models. A particular theoretical example using the term structure of interest rates is studied here, along with actual simulation experiments using a large macroeconometric model. This analysis illustrates the advantages of simulating with innovations and the extent to which more standard simulation procedures lead to misleading results. The innovation-simulation technique can be used to provide information on the response of the economy to shocks, even when the macroeconometric model is not invariant to policy changes. Policymakers might find such information to be quite valuable.]
The view that the inflationary process experienced in the United States over the last 10 years can be largely attributed to increasing concentration in the private sector has once again regained a degree of prominence. We offer calculations showing the effect of increasing concentration in the consumer price index. The results indicate that the act of reducing concentration, if successful is likely to have little impact on the consumer price index.
This study demonstrates a tractable method for analyzing schooling investment with risky incomes. Constant relative risk aversion is assumed, and borrowing in a rudimentary capital market is allowed. A linear, variance-components model on log (real income) is estimated. Only unexplained variation is treated as a source of risk. Illustrative empirical results indicate that students should take either 4 years of college or none at all, depending on time preference, loan availability, and degree of risk aversion. Estimate risk-adjusted rates of return to college exceed 10 percent for some parameter values. Risk adjustments for college rates are small but positive.
This paper examines the statistical relationship between devaluation and both the trade balance and the balance of payments for 16 devaluations of 14 countries in the 1960s. Using several tests involving both the seemingly unrelated and pooled cross-section time-series regression techniques, the paper tests the effect of devaluation while standardizing for other variables that may affect the foreign accounts. While the balance of payments does seem to improve following devaluation, no evidence is found to support the hypothesis that devaluation improves the trade balance. The paper concludes that the adjustment to devaluation is essentially monetary in nature, involving only a portfolio stock adjustment.
The paper argues that, in the absence of lump-sum payments, a Pareto optimum is achievable by marginal-cost pricing and/or competitive equilibrium only when the boundary of the social production set happens to be linearly homogeneous near that optimal solution. Thus, contrary to widespread belief, both diminishing and increasing returns can be incompatible with achievement of optimality via parametric prices. Generally, the best that any set of fixed prices can achieve is the Ramsey solution constrained by Walras's law. The resulting welfare loss is the price society must pay for using a price system to allocate resources.
Earlier work on U.S. import demand suggest that structural change may have occurred sometime in the mid-1960s. Since this evidence was based upon a somewhat arbitrary splitting of the sample period, the dating of change is uncertain. In this paper we investigate the question of structural change for both U.S. imports and exports, using a procedure that lets the data determine if and when structural change may have occurred. We find weak evidence of structural change for imports in the mid- to late 1960s and much stronger evidence in 1972:1 and thereafter. There is no evidence of structural change for exports.
This is a general equilibrium analysis of preferential trading. A method was developed which allows the analysis of the many-good case and which suggests the tools for empirical studies. It is shown that increasing the number of commodities beyond two introduces new considerations. It is, however, always possible to identify welfare-increasing tariff changes. The study analyzes the inter-relationship between preferential trading and a unilateral movement to free trade. The effect of a customs union on income distribution among union members is emphasized.