Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We study intermediation in the housing market. Using data from an online platform utilized by real estate agents to generate leads, we identify exogenous intermediary attention arising from the quasi-randomized ordering of potential listings. Greater intermediary attention leads to an increased probability of listing with an agent and selling quickly, and a higher transaction price. The listing and transaction probabilities of neighboring properties decrease in intermediary attention. These results contrast sharply with endogenous correlations and provide causal evidence that intermediaries resolve property-level frictions deriving from search, information, or behavioral considerations but do not mitigate neighborhood-level information asymmetries.

Abstract Many regulations aim to promote coordination among creditors in bankruptcy by ex post restricting their ability to exit distressed firms. However, such restrictions may harm creditors’ ex ante incentives to stay invested, thereby worsening coordination outcomes. We build a dynamic coordination model to show how this force shapes creditor runs, bankruptcy filings, and regulation designs. Intriguingly, filing for bankruptcy early, thereby preserving more assets for latecomers, can prolong firm life. Furthermore, regulators’ clawbacks on prebankruptcy repayments can be superior to firms’ commitment to early bankruptcy filing. Our analysis generates implications for automatic stay, avoidable preference, bank failures, and seniority structure.

Abstract Using confidential microdata, we show that shocks to primary dealers’ constraints have significant effects on the U.S. Treasury securities market. We consider two types of constraints: the supplementary leverage ratio and trading desk value-at-risk constraints. In response to tighter constraints, dealers reduce their Treasury positions, triggering a reduction in aggregate turnover and an increase in dealer intermediation margin. Impaired intermediation also amplifies the yield response to net demand shifts and weakens Treasury auction outcomes. Our estimates suggest that the (shadow) cost of dealer constraints is as high as 9% of dealers’ profit margins.

Abstract We study how terminated correspondent banking relationships affect international trade. Drawing on firm-level export data from emerging Europe, we show that when local banks lose access to correspondent services, their corporate clients, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, experience significant export declines. Firms only partially offset lost exports with higher domestic sales, resulting in lower total revenues and employment. Other firms cease operations entirely. These firm-level impacts aggregate to lower product-level exports from countries more exposed to correspondent bank retrenchment.

Abstract We propose a statistical model of heterogeneous beliefs wherein investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Investors form return forecasts from their individual models using common data inputs. We measure disagreement as forecast dispersion across investor-models (MFD). Our measure aligns with analyst forecast disagreement but more powerfully predicts returns. We document a large and robust association between belief disagreement and future returns. A decile spread portfolio that sells stocks with high disagreement and buys stocks with low disagreement earns a value-weighted return of 13% per year. Further analyses suggest MFD-alpha is mispricing induced by short-sale costs and limits-to-arbitrage.

Abstract We explore the factor structure in delta-hedged equity option returns. A sparse latent factor model generates a correlation of 0.90 or higher between average and predicted option returns. A comparable performance is achieved with a characteristic-based model containing four factors: the equally weighted option portfolio, a factor based on the difference between historical and implied volatilities, a factor based on the ratio of corporate cash holdings to the total value of the firm’s assets, and a factor based on volatility of volatility. Traditional stock return factors cannot explain these option factors.

Abstract Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with government guarantee and regulatory treatment channels. Analyses of dispersion of dealers’ prepayment forecasts, seasoned MBS, and investors’ MBS holdings deliver further economic implications for agency MBS as safe assets.

Abstract We show that scale in active equity portfolios is understated by at least 65% because the majority of mutual funds have “twin” institutional vehicles (IVs) managed under the same strategies. Omitting these IVs can severely skew crucial estimates in asset management research: by including IV assets, diminishing returns to scale of active investments is significantly reduced, and dollar value added of active strategies is more substantial and persistent than previously suggested. We further show that IV assets meaningfully influence managers’ portfolio decisions. In addition, these measurement issues apply to common flow measures and extend to passive funds and bond funds.

Abstract We identify and estimate price informativeness, a necessary step in testing theories of information aggregation. Starting from a pricing equation and a stochastic process for payoffs, we show how to recover relative price informativeness from regressions of asset price changes on changes in payoffs. Applying our identification results, we estimate a panel of stock-specific measures of informativeness for U.S. stocks. In the cross-section, large stocks with high turnover, idiosyncratic volatility, institutional ownership, and analyst coverage have higher informativeness. In the time series, the median, mean, and standard deviation of the distribution of informativeness have steadily increased since the mid-1980s.

A core responsibility of a central bank is to ensure financial stability by acting as the “lender of last resort” through its Discount Window. The Discount Window, however, has not been effective because its usage is stigmatized. In this paper, we study experimentally how such stigma can be cured. We find that, once a Discount Window facility is stigmatized, removing stigma is difficult. This result is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s experiences which have been unsuccessful at removing the stigma associated with its Discount Window.