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Investment Banking in Europe: Restructuring for the 1990s.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 823
Fundamentals of EC structural change underwriting new issues of securities corporate financial advisory services rules and precedures governing European mergers and acquisitions secondary market brokerage and trading investment management services securities industry regulation in the EC competitive positioning of investment banking players conclusions and implications.

Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market

American Economic Review 1992
Results from the Iowa Political Stock Market are analyzed to ascertain how well markets work as aggregators of information. The authors find that the market worked extremely well, dominating opinion polls in forecasting the outcome of the 1988 presidential election, even though traders in the market exhibited substantial amounts of judgment biases. Their explanation is that judgment bias refers to average behavior, while in markets it is marginal traders who influence price. They present evidence that in this market a sufficient number of traders were free of judgment bias so that the market was able to work well.

History's Role in Coordinating Decentralized Allocation Decisions

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(2), 292-316
What causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price? A satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems: Equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location, and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity. This paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems, reviews some solutions found in the literature, and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them. In addressing these issues, we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions.

History's Role in Coordinating Decentralized Allocation Decisions

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(2), 292-316
What causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price? A satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems: Equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location, and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity. This paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems, reviews some solutions found in the literature, and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them. In addressing these issues, we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions.

Seasonality and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 511
Most of the evidence on consumption-based asset pricing is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data. The consumption-based models have not worked well for explaining asset returns, but with seasonally adjusted data there are reasons to expect spurious rejections of the models. This paper examines asset pricing models using not seasonally adjusted aggregate consumption data. We find evidence against models with time-separable preferences, even when the models incorporate seasonality and allow seasonal heteroskedasticity. A model that uses not seasonally adjusted consumption data and nonseparable preferences with seasonal effects works better according to several criteria. The parameter estimates imply a form of seasonal habit persistence in aggregate consumption expenditures.

Seasonality and Consumption‐Based Asset Pricing

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 511-552
Most of the evidence on consumption‐based asset pricing is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data. The consumption‐based models have not worked well for explaining asset returns, but with seasonally adjusted data there are reasons to expect spurious rejections of the models. This paper examines asset pricing models using not seasonally adjusted aggregate consumption data. We find evidence against models with time‐separable preferences, even when the models incorporate seasonality and allow seasonal heteroskedasticity. A model that uses not seasonally adjusted consumption data and nonseparable preferences with seasonal effects works better according to several criteria. The parameter estimates imply a form of seasonal habit persistence in aggregate consumption expenditures.

The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 733-752
This paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.