Knowledge that Transforms

While voluntary energy conservation programs have been extensively promoted by electric utilities and public utility commissions, their effectiveness has been insufficiently critiqued. This paper contributes to the growing evaluation of such programs by measuring the net energy savings directly attributable to an actual set of programs. The analysis explicitly corrects for the self-selection bias that can arise in program evaluation. The correction is found to be important; traditional evaluation methods are subject to considerable bias. Correcting for this bias, the amount of program-induced energy savings is found to be considerably less than traditionally believed. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

This paper estimates an empirical model of the choice between adjustable- and fixe d-rate mortgages using a large national database compiled by the Nat ional Association of Realtors. The explanatory variables in the probi t choice equation include borrower characteristics, regional dummies, the FRM rate, and the FRM-ARM rate differential. Since the intrerest rate on the mortgage not chosen is unobserved, this rate must be est imated in a way that eliminates selectivity bias. Simulation of the e stimated choice equation provides insight into the origin of the ARM revolution. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

The effects of technological opportunity, market demand and RD with respect to productivity growth, it is not possible to distinguish demand and technological opportunity effects, but spillovers are important.

A technique for assessing the degree of monopoly power, developed by Appelbaum (1979, 1982), is extended here to permit measurement of monopsony power as well. Data from the U.S. beef packing industry are examined. The results reveal small, but statistically significant monopoly/monopsony price distortions in slaughter cattle and wholesale beef markets but, in spite of a recent trend toward heightened concentration in the industry, give no indication that performance has become appreciably less competitive of late.

The relevance of imperfect competition for models of aggregate economic fluctuations has received increased attention from researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization.Measuring properly the size of industry markups of price over marginal cost is important both for assessing the role of market structure and for determining the extent to which excess capacity is a significant feature accompanying imperfect competition in American industry.Using a panel data set on four-digit Census manufacturing industries, this paper expand8 recent work by Robert Hall on the importance of market structure for understanding cyclical fluctuations.We outline a methodology for estimating industry markups of price over cost and the influence of market structure on cyclical movements in total factor productivity.While we find evidence to support the proposition that price exceeds marginal cost In U.S. manufacturing, our results offer only limited support for the notion that markups are importantly related to differences in Industry concentration, though the effect of unionization is important.Concentration effects are important only in industries producing durable goods or differentiated con8umer goods.In addition, much of the estimated markup of price over marginal cost is accounted for by fixed costs related to overhead labor, advertising, and central office expenses; we do not find compelling evidence of substantial evidence of excess capacity in most industries.

Spatial autocorrelation occurs when population members are related through their geographic location. This paper presents a maximum likelihood procedure for simultaneously estimating the parameters of the correlation function and the regression coefficients. A test for the presence of spatial autocorrelation is also provided. Estimation of an hedonic regression illustrates the technique. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

Using panel data for rural South India, a fixed-effects individual wage equation and farm production function are estimated that have calorie intake and nutritional status (weight-for-height) of workers as their arguments. Neither market wages, nor farm output, are observed to be responsive to changes in the daily energy intake of workers. However, both are highly elastic with respect to weight-for-height. These results suggest that, while the human body can adapt to inadequate nutrition in the short run, it cannot adapt as readily to chronic malnutrition that eventually results in loss of weight-for-height. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.