Knowledge that Transforms

Of the share lost to one product because of a price change, diversion fractions are the fractions of that lost share going to each of the other products. This paper expresses product cross-elasticities in terms of diversion fractions and a scaling factor. Since the automotive market includes more than two-hundred products, time-series data are insufficient for estimating all elasticities. Instead, this paper estimates automotive elasticities by specifying the diversion fractions using cross-sectional first choice/second choice data and estimating the remaining scaling factor and own-elasticities using more aggregate elasticities estimated from time series. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper examines testable implications of the life-cycle theory of saving with lifetime uncertainty. Theory sugges ts that persons facing lower mortality rates should exhibit greater consumption growth. Nonparametric tests, using the Retirement Histor y Survey, provide mixed support for the theory. A parameterized model allowing for altruism provides more support. Estimates of a bequest parameter indicate that elderly households value contributions to bequests as highly as contributions to their own consumption. This i s equally true for households with and without children. Such a beques t motive would curtail the impact of lifetime uncertainty on consumpti on growth. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper applies a production function approach to the analysis of imperfection in product and factor markets and develops a test of Efficient Bargaining for wage and employment determination. Based on a translog function defined at the firm level, estimates for the Belgian chemical industry are consistent with the existence of product market power which is significantly eroded by union wage rents.

A new decomposition of the Gini index by income source is proposed. It distinguishes between three components: the true Gini index of the source, a permutation, and an aggregation component. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Yock Y. Chong and David F. Hendry (1986) propose the concept of forecast encompassing--the lack of additional information in another model's forecasts. The corresponding test statistic is based on the regression of one model's forecast errors on the other model's forecasts. This paper generalizes Chong and Hendry's statistic to include sets of dynamic nonlinear models with uncertain estimated coefficients generating multistep forecasts with possibly systematic biases. Using stochastic simulation, the generalized statistic is applied to forecasts over 1985Q1-1987Q4 from six models of the U.S. merchandise trade balance, revealing misspecification in all models. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper presents a methodology for predicting the effect of quota-type regulatory constraints on capacity utilization for a multiproduct profit-maximizing firm. The approach builds on recent advances in the use of virtual prices to model the effects of rationing. This allows the effects of regulatory constraints to be examined ex ante. The methodology is illustrated through a case stud y of the imposition of output quotas in an open-access marine fishing industry on the Pacific Coast of the United States. The results sugg est that, for certain species, output quotas can cause strong disinvestm ent incentives. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper investigates the direction of the prima facie causal relationship between world price variability and protectionism in two agricultural sectors. Parametric and non-parametric causality tests involving an unanticipated measure of world price variability are performed and compared. The results of the tests reflect the fact that the nature of government intervention in agriculture varies across sectors and countries. As argued by Holmes and Hutton (1990), the non-parametric approach is efficient in identifying weak causal relations and is especially convenient when parametric causality tests based on different functional forms generate different results. Also, the effect of protectionism on world price variability is either insignificant or positive and as such contrasts with the ambiguity suggested by recent theoretical developments. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Recent research has demonstrated the possibility of welfare-enhancing industrial policy. This paper analyzes the impact of industrial policy on Japan's trade pattern and explores the possibility that it has been welfare-enhancing. Econometric results indicate that industrial policies have had an impact on Japan's trade specialization. These results are obtained contemporaneously and when the explanatory variables are lagged, suggesting either that policymakers have been forward-looking or that policy interventions have had persistent, long-lasting effects. Although some cases of successful targeting are uncovered, welfare-enhancing interventions appear to have been the exception, not the rule. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper analyzes the effects of returns to scale, farm-size, technical, allocative, and scale inefficiencies on the profitability of Utah dairy farms. It derives the conditions necessary to compare the profitability of farms within and between different size classifications as small, medium, and large. Some comparative static results regarding increases in input prices and a decrease or withdrawal of price support on profitability of small, medium, and large farms are presented. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Joseph A. Herriges, S. Mostafa Baladi, Douglas W. Caves, Bernard F. Neenan, The Response of Industrial Customers to Electric Rates Based Upon Dynamic Marginal Costs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, No. 3 (Aug., 1993), pp. 446-454