Knowledge that Transforms

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

In the last decade, economists have produced a considerable body of research suggesting that the historical origin of a country's laws is highly correlated with a broad range of its legal rules and regulations, as well as with economic outcomes. We summarize this evidence and attempt a unified interpretation. We also address several objections to the empirical claim that legal origins matter. Finally, we assess the implications of this research for economic reform.

This paper investigates whether government support can act to increase exporting activity. We use a uniquely rich data set on Irish manufacturing plants and employ an empirical strategy that combines a nonparametric matching procedure with a difference-in-differences estimator in order to deal with the potential selection problem inherent in the analysis. Our results suggest that if grants are large enough, they can encourage already exporting firms to compete more effectively on the international market. However, there is little evidence that grants encourage nonexporters to start exporting.

This paper uses aggregate data to test the implication that capitalpoor individuals favor trade liberalization in poor (capital-scarce) countries and are against it in rich (labor-scarce) countries. Income per capita is used as a proxy for the country capital-labor ratio while political rights is used as a proxy for the capital-labor ratio of the median voter. We analyze the determinants of average tariff rates in a cross section of countries to find that they are negatively associated with both income per capita and political rights, while they are positively, significantly, and robustly associated with their interaction, corroborating our initial hypothesis.

Four rankings of economics departments worldwide in terms of graduate education are constructed. The central methodological idea is that the value of a department is the sum of the values of its PhD graduates, as reflected in the values of their current employing departments. Scores are derived as solutions to linear simultaneous equations in the values. The sample includes the top 58 departments, the composition of which is determined endogenously, invoking a criterion requiring more than three placements in the sample. Illuminating the current state and trends of economics PhD education, the conclusions should be of broad interest to PhD candidates, academics, and policymakers.

Increased enforcement can displace crime to alternative lawbreaking methods. This paper examines a customs reform in the Philippines that raised enforcement against a specific method of avoiding import duties. Increased enforcement applied only to shipments from some countries, so shipments from other countries serve as a control group. Increased enforcement reduced the targeted duty-avoidance method, but caused substantial displacement to an alternative method. The hypothesis of zero change in total duty avoidance cannot be rejected. Displacement was greater for products with higher tariff rates and import volumes, consistent with the existence of fixed costs of switching to alternative duty-avoidance methods.

Over the past thirty years, the use of child safety seats in motor vehicles has increased dramatically. There is, however, relatively little empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of child safety seats relative to the much cheaper alternative of traditional seat belts. Using data on all fatal crashes in the United States from 1975 to 2003, I find that child safety seats, in actual practice, do not provide any discernible improvement over adult lap and shoulder belts in reducing fatalities among children aged two to six. Lap-only belts are somewhat less effective, but still far superior to riding unrestrained.

Restructuring electricity markets has enabled wholesalers to exercise market power. Using a common method to measure competition, several studies have found substantial inefficiencies. This method overstates actual welfare loss by ignoring production constraints that result in non-convex costs. I develop an alternative method that accounts for these constraints and apply it to the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland market. For the summer following restructuring, the common method implies that market imperfections resulted in considerable welfare loss, with actual production costs exceeding the competitive model's estimates by 13%–21%. In contrast, my method finds that actual costs were only between 3% and 8% above the competitive levels.

Cross-country demand data are often consistent with the existence of a representative consumer with homothetic preferences. While homotheticity allows the construction of tight bounds to quantity indexes and their variance, it contradicts the biological reality that humans require minimum consumption of food, clothing, and shelter. This paper presents an approach for nonparametrically estimating bounds to utility from above-subsistence consumption. OECD data are used to show that homotheticity markedly compresses the real income distribution relative to what is found under the more general class of affine-homothetic preferences, and this has major consequences for estimates of convergence.

Real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity would improve allocative efficiency and limit wholesalers' market power. Conventional wisdom claims that RTP provides additional environmental benefits. This paper argues that RTP will reduce the variance, both within- and across-days, in the quantity of electricity demanded. We estimate the short-run impacts of this reduction on SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions. Reducing variance decreases emissions in regions where peak demand is met more by oil-fired capacity than by hydropower, such as the Mid-Atlantic. However, reducing variance increases emissions in more U.S. regions, namely those with more hydropower like the West. The effects are relatively small.