Knowledge that Transforms

Surveys of individual's risk-dollar trade-offs illuminate not only the local trade-off rates, but also can be used to address more fundamental questions about the structure of utility functions. This largely unexplored empirical area is investigated by developing an econometric technique to estimate utility functions based on survey data on risk-dollar trade-offs for minor health effects. The empirical tests indicate that for all but one of the temporary health effects considered, consumers treat injuries as tantamount to a drop in income, implying that the health impact does not alter the structure of the utility function in a fundamental way.

Males who participated in intercollegiate athletics are estimated to receive 4 percent higher annual incomes than similar nonathletes. No such income premium associated with college athletics is revealed among females. Both male and female athletes who attended colleges and universities in the early 1970s had higher graduation rates than other students. Since the models used to estimate income and graduation differentials included many measurable determinants of labor market and academic outcomes, these findings suggest that athletic participation may enhance the development of discipline, confidence, motivation, a competitive spirit, or other subjective traits that encourage success.

This paper utilizes unique survey data on labor union coverage at the firm level to examine union effects on the profitability of 705 U.S. companies during the 1970s. Market value and earnings are estimated to be about 10 percent-15 percent lower in an average unionized company than in a nonunion company, following extensive control for firm and industry characteristics. Deleterious union effects on firm profitability are sizable throughout the 1972-80 period, but vary considerably across industries. The relatively poor profit performance of unionized companies may help explain the recent decline in U.S. union membership.

The authors estimate the probability that a price fixing conspiracy will be indicated by federal authorities to be at most between 0.13 and 0.17 in a given year. The authors' estimate is based on conspiracy durations calculated from data reported for a large sample of Department of Justice cases, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and duration of conspiracies.

This paper offers empirical evidence which counters two opposing but frequently expressed views concerning the market for popular music. The first view is that the consumers of popular music have no recognition of or appreciation for "quality" or "ability" in singing. The second is that the market is an example of the "Superstar Phenomenon, " in the Marshall-Rosen sense, wherein small differences in ability are magnified into disproportional levels of success. Using an external measure of "voice quality, " provided by the literature on voice, the estimated elasticity of record sales to voice quality is found to be significantly greater than zero but less than one.

This study estimates translog variable cost functions for 147 American doctorate granting universities, accounting for three major products of these institutions: undergraduate and graduate instruction, and research. Explicit measures of research output and quality are employed. Evidence is found for considerable economies of scale for the average institution, as well as economies of scope related to the joint production of undergraduate and graduate instruction. The public or private ownership of an institution is not significant for the explanation of variable costs. The intensity of state regulation in the public sector does not have a significant impact on production efficiency.

Using a new data set, this paper gives evidence in support of the intuitive notion that overqualified workers are less satisfied with their jobs and are more likely to quit. However, training time is inversely related to overqualification, which suggests why such seeming mismatches occur and may in fact be optimal.

Several studies of housing price trends recommend combining statistical analysis to repeat sales of residential properties. Recently, price indices derived from these techniques have formed the basis for inferences about the "efficiency" of housing markets. This paper presents an improved methodology which combines inflation on repeat sales of unchanged properties, on repeat sales of improved properties, and on single sales, all in one joint estimation. Empirical evidence, based upon a rich sample of transactions on single family houses in a single neighborhood, indicates the clear advantages of the proposed methodology, at least in one typical application.

Numerous articles have investigated the distribution of share prices, and find that the returns are fat tailed. Nevertheless, there is still controversy about the amount of probability mass in the tails, and hence about the most appropriate distribution to use in modeling returns. This controversy has proven hard to resolve, as the alternatives are non-nested. We employ extreme value theory, focusing exclusively on the larger observations in order to assess the tail shape within a unified framework. We find that at least the first two moments exist. This enables one to generate robust probabilities on large returns, which put the recent stock market swings into historical perspective.