Knowledge that Transforms

Band-pass filters are useful in a wide range of economic contexts. This paper develops a set of approximate band-pass filters and illustrates their application to measuring the business-cycle component of macroeconomic activity. Detailed comparisons are made with several alternative filters commonly used for extracting business-cycle components.

This paper empirically investigates high-yield bond default and call behavior using a competing risks hazard model that simultaneously estimates the impact of bond age, issue-specific characteristics and business conditions on both events. Results reveal nonmonotonic aging effects: default rates increase and then drop while call rates first increase and then level off. Rating and coupon size affect default risk, while maturity and issue size impact only call rates. Defaults are more likely when economic conditions have worsened and no improvement is anticipated. Calls are more likely when interest rates have decreased but are expected to rise.

In this paper, we estimate a transition model that allows for measurement errors in the data. The measurement errors arise because the survey design is partly retrospective, so that individuals sometimes forget or misclassify their past labor market transitions. The observed data are adjusted for errors via a measurement-error mechanism. The parameters of the distribution of the true data, and those of the measurement-error mechanism are estimated by a two-stage method. The results, based on the 1990-1992 French labor force survey, show that neglecting measurement errors leads to an underestimation of the average durations spent in labor market states. The estimates of some important transition probabilities between states are also biased by the measurement errors.

In this paper we develop and implement a method for bounding the extent to which labor market discrimination can account for racial wage differentials. The method is based on a two-sided, search-matching model that formally accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and unobserved offered wages. We find that racial differences in offered wages are proportionately twice (three times) as large as racial differences in accepted wages for high-school dropouts (high-school graduates). The results indicate that discrimination could account for the entire racial wage-offer differential for high-school dropouts and for high-school graduates, i.e., the bound on the extent of discrimination is not informative.

We demonstrate that the conventional practice of running firm investment regressions on beginning-of-period average Q cannot recover structural parameters related to adjustment costs. We propose two new methods of estimating these structural parameters by using financial market information (average Q's). We find that the sensitivity of investment to Q is more than ten times higher than estimated in conventional Q regressions. Furthermore, a firm's investment rate is more responsive to expected future Q the higher the level of this Q; i.e., investment is a convex function of fundamentals. The cost of installing new capital is estimated to be approximately 10% to 13% of the total investment cost (including purchase) at usual rates of investment.

In spite of the large and growing importance of the employer size-wage premium, previous attempts to account for this premium using observable worker or employer characteristics have had limited success. The problem is that, while most theoretical explanations for the size-wage premium are based on the matching of employers and employees, previous empirical work has relied on either worker surveys with little information about the employer, or establishment surveys with little information about the workers. In contrast, this study uses the newly created Worker-Establishment Characteristic Database, which contains linked employer-employee data for a large sample of U.S. manufacturing workers and establishments, to examine seven explanations for the employer size-wage premium. A number of the explanations can account for some of the observed cross-sectional variation in worker wages. However, none of the explanations can fully account for the employer size-wage premium. In the end there remains a large, significant, and unexplained premium paid to workers of large employers.

This paper examines the roles played by innovations identified from a simple four-variable VAR characterized by cointegration. Using knowledge of cointegration rank and “textbook” relations that link macroeconomic aggregates, we identify distinct “real” and “nominal” innovations that dictate the long-run behavior of the model. We also examine the explanatory power of transitory innovations that are orthogonal to these permanent shocks. One of the permanent shocks displays all the characteristics of a technology or “supply” innovation, while one of the transitory innovations—identified by imposing short-run price rigid-ity—is interpretable as a “demand” side impulse. The permanent nominal shock bears the imprint of an innovation in aggregate inflation expectations. Historical decomposition and comparison with variables that are external to the model reveals the relative importance of the shocks at various episodes.

In this paper, we introduce three flexible consumer demand systems in which expenditures on goods are quadratic functions of income. We view these alternatives as to the demand systems used heretofore in the empirical modeling of rank-three demands, namely those in which expenditure shares are quadratic functions of the logarithm of income. Curvature conditions required by theory can be imposed locally during the estimation for each, and a semiflexible version can be estimated. For illustrative purposes, we estimate various forms of two of the systems using Canadian data on seven categories of goods for the period 1947 to 1995.

Using Canadian data on large, private-sector contract negotiations from January, 1967, to March, 1993, we find that strikes and wages are substantially influenced by labor policy. The data indicate that conciliation policies have largely been ineffective in reducing strike costs. In contrast, general contract reopener provisions appear to make both unions and employers better off by reducing negotiation costs without systematically affecting wage settlements. Legislation banning the use of replacement workers appears to lead to significantly higher negotiation costs and redistribution of quasi-rents from employers to unions.

This paper utilizes recent simulation techniques in a two-stage estimation method which is applicable for a wide range of statistical models in the presence of missing data. The first stage of the method provides a way to estimate (and simulate from) the joint distribution of missing variables when the missing variables are continuous, binary, or ordered discrete. The second stage uses the first-stage estimates to “integrate” out the effects of the missing variables and obtain model estimates. The implementation of the method in this paper allows theoretically important, partially missing wage and school characteristic variables-which are not necessarily independently determined-to be included in a proportional hazard model of teacher attrition.